{"id":24408,"date":"2026-10-22T09:03:33","date_gmt":"2026-10-22T01:03:33","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/xinxuan.jlgyjj.com\/?p=24408"},"modified":"2026-10-22T09:03:53","modified_gmt":"2026-10-22T01:03:53","slug":"24408","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"http:\/\/xinxuan.jlgyjj.com\/?p=24408","title":{"rendered":""},"content":{"rendered":"
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\n\t\t\u6458\u8981<\/strong><\/span>\uff1a<\/span> 2026\u5e7410\u670812\u65e5\uff0c\u745e\u5178\u7687\u5bb6\u79d1\u5b66\u9662\u5c06\u8bfa\u8d1d\u5c14\u7ecf\u6d4e\u5b66\u5956\u6388\u4e88\u7f57\u4f2f\u7279\u00b7\u970d\u5c14\u4e0e\u8fc8\u514b\u5c14\u00b7\u4f0d\u5fb7\u798f\u5fb7\uff0c\u8868\u5f70\u4ed6\u4eec\u201c\u4e3a\u5b8f\u89c2\u7ecf\u6d4e\u7a33\u5b9a\u5316\u5960\u5b9a\u5fae\u89c2\u7ecf\u6d4e\u57fa\u7840\u201d\u3002\u8fd9\u4e00\u6d88\u606f\u518d\u6b21\u5f15\u53d1\u56fd\u5185\u5b66\u754c\u5bf9\u897f\u65b9\u7ecf\u6d4e\u5b66\u7684\u8ffd\u6367\u4e0e\u819c\u62dc\u3002\u4e8b\u5b9e\u4e0a\uff0c\u897f\u65b9\u7269\u7406\u5b66\u53ca\u6570\u5b66\u754c\u666e\u904d\u5b58\u5728\u5bf9\u897f\u65b9\u7ecf\u6d4e\u5b66\u7684\u9119\u89c6\u94fe\uff0c\u53ea\u662f\u56e0\u4e3a\u610f\u8bc6\u5f62\u6001\u7684\u539f\u56e0\uff0c\u897f\u65b9\u8fd9\u4e2a\u5b58\u5728\u4e25\u91cd\u7f3a\u9677\u7684\u5b66\u79d1\u88ab\u63a8\u4e0a\u4e86\u795e\u575b\u3002\u672c\u6587\u8ba4\u4e3a\uff0c\u4e2d\u56fd\u7ecf\u6d4e\u5b66\u7684\u201c\u8865\u8bfe\u65f6\u4ee3\u201d\u5df2\u7ecf\u7ed3\u675f\uff0c\u5f53\u524d\u7684\u6838\u5fc3\u4efb\u52a1\u662f\u521b\u5efa\u81ea\u4e3b\u77e5\u8bc6\u4f53\u7cfb\uff1b\u800c\u521b\u5efa\u81ea\u4e3b\u77e5\u8bc6\u4f53\u7cfb\u7684\u524d\u63d0\uff0c\u662f\u5bf9\u897f\u65b9\u7ecf\u6d4e\u5b66\u7684\u79d1\u5b66\u6027\u8fdb\u884c\u7cfb\u7edf\u68c0\u9a8c\u3002\u672c\u6587\u4ee5\u970d\u5c141978\u5e74\u7684\u83b7\u5956\u5960\u57fa\u6027\u8bba\u6587\u4e3a\u6837\u672c\uff0c\u4ee5\u4e00\u822c\u79d1\u5b66\u7814\u7a76\u7684\u4e94\u4e2a\u9636\u6bb5\uff08\u539f\u59cb\u6d4b\u91cf\u2014\u8bef\u5dee\u5904\u7406\u2014\u56de\u5f52\u7ecf\u9a8c\u516c\u5f0f\u2014\u4e25\u683c\u56e0\u679c\u89c4\u5f8b\u2014\u65b0\u6570\u636e\u518d\u68c0\u9a8c\uff09\u4e3a\u6807\u5c3a\uff0c\u5c42\u5c42\u89e3\u5256\uff1a\u970d\u5c14\u7406\u8bba\u4e3b\u8981\u5efa\u7acb\u5728\u7406\u6027\u9884\u671f\u3001\u751f\u547d\u5468\u671f\u5047\u8bf4\u3001\u6301\u4e45\u6536\u5165\u5047\u8bf4<\/span>\u3001\u968f\u673a\u6e38\u8d70\u7406\u8bba\u4e0e\u9785\u7406\u8bba\u4e94\u5927\u57fa\u7840\u4e4b\u4e0a\uff1b\u53ea\u8981\u9010\u4e00\u8003\u5bdf\u8fd9\u4e9b\u57fa\u7840\u7406\u8bba\u7684\u5386\u53f2\u4e0e\u903b\u8f91\uff0c\u897f\u65b9\u4e3b\u6d41\u7ecf\u6d4e\u5b66\u5728\u6d4b\u91cf\u57fa\u7840\u3001\u65b9\u6cd5\u8bba\u524d\u63d0\u4e0e\u68c0\u9a8c\u6807\u51c6\u4e0a\u7684\u4e0d\u79d1\u5b66\u6027\u5c31\u4f1a\u6e05\u6670\u5730\u663e\u73b0\u3002\u4e0a\u7bc7\u5b8c\u6210\u201c\u5f15\u5b50\u201d\u7684\u94fa\u8bbe\uff1a\u8bf4\u660e\u4e3a\u4ec0\u4e48\u8865\u8bfe\u9636\u6bb5\u5df2\u7ecf\u5b8c\u6210\u3001\u4e2d\u56fd\u81ea\u4e3b\u77e5\u8bc6\u4f53\u7cfb\u5e94\u5f53\u5982\u4f55\u521b\u5efa\uff0c\u5e76\u7cfb\u7edf\u4ecb\u7ecd\u970d\u5c14\u7406\u8bba\u53ca\u5176\u4e94\u5927\u57fa\u7840\u7406\u8bba\u7684\u6765\u9f99\u53bb\u8109\u3002<\/span><\/span>\n\t<\/p>\n

\n\t\t\u5173\u952e\u8bcd\uff1a<\/strong><\/span> <\/strong><\/span>\u81ea\u4e3b\u77e5\u8bc6\u4f53\u7cfb\uff1b\u8bfa\u8d1d\u5c14\u7ecf\u6d4e\u5b66\u5956\uff1b\u970d\u5c14\uff1b\u7406\u6027\u9884\u671f\uff1b\u751f\u547d\u5468\u671f\u5047\u8bf4<\/span>\uff1b\u6301\u4e45\u6536\u5165\u5047\u8bf4\uff1b\u968f\u673a\u6e38\u8d70\uff1b\u9785\u7406\u8bba\uff1b\u79d1\u5b66\u65b9\u6cd5\u8bba<\/span><\/span>\n\t<\/p>\n

\n\t\t\u76ee\u5f55\uff1a<\/strong><\/span><\/span>\n\t<\/p>\n

\n\t\t\u4e00\u3001\u4e2d\u56fd\u5df2\u7ecf\u5b8c\u6210\u8865\u8bfe\u9636\u6bb5<\/span><\/span>\n\t<\/p>\n

\n\t\t\u4e8c\u3001\u5982\u4f55\u521b\u5efa\u81ea\u4e3b\u77e5\u8bc6\u4f53\u7cfb\uff1f<\/span><\/span>\n\t<\/p>\n

\n\t\t\u4e09\u3001\u4ee52026\u5e74\u7ecf\u6d4e\u5b66\u8bfa\u5956\u970d\u5c14\u7684\u7406\u8bba\u4e3a\u5f15\u5b50\u7cfb\u7edf\u9610\u660e\u897f\u65b9\u7ecf\u6d4e\u5b66\u7684\u4e0d\u79d1\u5b66\u6027\u2014\u2014\u603b\u4f53\u601d\u8def<\/span><\/span>\n\t<\/p>\n

\n\t\t\u56db\u3001\u970d\u5c14\u7406\u8bba\u7b80\u4ecb<\/span><\/span>\n\t<\/p>\n

\n\t\t\u4e94\u3001\u4f5c\u4e3a\u970d\u5c14\u7406\u8bba\u5f62\u6210\u524d\u63d0\u7684\u4e94\u4e2a\u4e3b\u8981\u57fa\u7840\u7406\u8bba\u4ecb\u7ecd<\/span><\/span>\n\t<\/p>\n

\n\t\t\u53c2\u8003\u6587\u732e<\/span><\/span>\n\t<\/p>\n<\/section>\n

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\n\t<\/section>\n<\/section>\n
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\n\t\t\u4f5c\u8005\u6c6a\u6d9b\u5728\u590d\u65e6\u5927\u5b662026\u601d\u60f3\u8005\u8bba\u575b\u4e0a\u7684\u53d1\u8a00PPT\u9996\u9875\u3002\u8fd1\u671f\u5728\u5176\u4ed6\u591a\u4e2a\u667a\u5e93\u8bba\u575b\u4e0a\u5bf9\u8be5\u5185\u5bb9\u4e5f\u4f5c\u4e86\u4ecb\u7ecd\u3002\u672c\u6587\u662f\u4ee5\u8fd9\u4e9b\u53d1\u8a00\u4e3a\u57fa\u7840\u7cfb\u7edf\u6574\u7406\u800c\u6210\u3002<\/span><\/span>\n\t<\/p>\n

\t<\/mpcpc>
\n<\/section>\n

\n

\n\t\t\u4e00\u3001\u4e2d\u56fd\u5df2\u7ecf\u5b8c\u6210\u8865\u8bfe\u9636\u6bb5<\/strong><\/span><\/span>\n\t<\/p>\n<\/section>\n

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\n\t\t2026\u5e7410\u670812\u65e5\uff0c\u745e\u5178\u7687\u5bb6\u79d1\u5b66\u9662\u5ba3\u5e03\u5c062026\u5e74\u8bfa\u8d1d\u5c14\u7ecf\u6d4e\u5b66\u5956\u6388\u4e88\u65af\u5766\u798f\u5927\u5b66\u6559\u6388\u7f57\u4f2f\u7279\u00b7\u970d\u5c14<\/span>\uff08Robert E. Hall\uff09\u4e0e\u54e5\u4f26\u6bd4\u4e9a\u5927\u5b66\u6559\u6388\u8fc8\u514b\u5c14\u00b7\u4f0d\u5fb7\u798f\u5fb7\uff08Michael Woodford\uff09\uff0c\u4ee5\u8868\u5f70\u4e8c\u4eba\u201c\u4e3a\u5b8f\u89c2\u7ecf\u6d4e\u7a33\u5b9a\u5316\u5960\u5b9a\u5fae\u89c2\u7ecf\u6d4e\u57fa\u7840\u201d\u3002\u4e0e\u5f80\u5e74\u4e00\u6837\uff0c\u8fd9\u4e00\u5956\u9879\u5728\u4e2d\u56fd\u5f15\u8d77\u9ad8\u5ea6\u5173\u6ce8\uff1a\u5a92\u4f53\u8fde\u7bc7\u62a5\u9053\uff0c\u5b66\u754c\u7eb7\u7eb7\u89e3\u8bfb\uff0c\u76f8\u5173\u7406\u8bba\u7684\u79d1\u666e\u6587\u7ae0\u4e00\u65f6\u95f4\u5145\u65a5\u5404\u79cd\u5e73\u53f0\u3002<\/span><\/span>\n\t<\/p>\n

\n\t\t\u8fd9\u79cd\u5173\u6ce8\u672c\u8eab\u65e0\u53ef\u539a\u975e\u3002\u4f46\u6211\u4eec\u66f4\u9700\u8981\u95ee\u4e00\u4e2a\u95ee\u9898\uff1a\u9762\u5bf9\u897f\u65b9\u7ecf\u6d4e\u5b66\u7684\u4e00\u6b21\u6b21\u201c\u52a0\u5195\u201d\uff0c\u4e2d\u56fd\u5b66\u754c\u5e94\u5f53\u4fdd\u6301\u4ec0\u4e48\u6837\u7684\u5fc3\u6001\uff1f\u662f\u7ee7\u7eed\u4ef0\u89c6\u3001\u7ee7\u7eed\u8865\u8bfe\uff0c\u8fd8\u662f\u5df2\u7ecf\u5230\u4e86\u5e73\u89c6\u4e43\u81f3\u5ba1\u89c6\u7684\u65f6\u5019\uff1f<\/span><\/span>\n\t<\/p>\n

\n\t\t\u6211\u4eec\u7684\u56de\u7b54\u662f\uff1a<\/span>\u4e2d\u56fd\u5305\u62ec\u7ecf\u6d4e\u5b66\u5728\u5185\u6240\u6709\u8865\u8bfe\u9636\u6bb5\u5df2\u7ecf\u5b8c\u6210\u3002<\/strong><\/span><\/span>\n\t<\/p>\n

\n\t\t\u56de\u987e\u5386\u53f2\uff0c\u4e2d\u56fd\u8fd1\u73b0\u4ee3\u77e5\u8bc6\u4f53\u7cfb\u7684\u5efa\u8bbe\uff0c\u672c\u8d28\u4e0a\u662f\u4e00\u4e2a\u4e0d\u65ad\u201c\u8865\u8bfe\u201d\u7684\u8fc7\u7a0b\uff1a<\/span><\/span>\n\t<\/p>\n

\n\t\t\u7b2c\u4e00\u6b21\u8865\u8bfe\u59cb\u4e8e\u6d0b\u52a1\u8fd0\u52a8<\/strong><\/span>\u3002 \u9e26\u7247\u6218\u4e89\u4e4b\u540e\uff0c\u201c\u5e08\u5937\u957f\u6280\u4ee5\u5236\u5937\u201d\u6210\u4e3a\u5171\u8bc6\uff0c\u4e2d\u56fd\u5f00\u59cb\u7cfb\u7edf\u5f15\u8fdb\u897f\u65b9\u7684\u519b\u4e8b\u6280\u672f\u3001\u5de5\u4e1a\u6280\u672f\u4e0e\u81ea\u7136\u79d1\u5b66\u3002\u8fd9\u6b21\u8865\u8bfe\u7684\u76ee\u6807\u5f88\u660e\u786e\uff1a\u5b66\u4e60\u201c\u5668\u7269\u201d\u5c42\u9762\u7684\u77e5\u8bc6\u3002<\/span><\/span>\n\t<\/p>\n

\n\t\t\u7b2c\u4e8c\u6b21\u8865\u8bfe\u53d1\u751f\u5728\u4e2d\u56fd\u5171\u4ea7\u515a\u5efa\u515a\u521d\u671f\u3002<\/strong><\/span> \u5341\u6708\u9769\u547d\u4e00\u58f0\u70ae\u54cd\uff0c\u7ed9\u4e2d\u56fd\u9001\u6765\u4e86\u9a6c\u514b\u601d\u5217\u5b81\u4e3b\u4e49\u3002\u8fd9\u6b21\u8865\u8bfe\u89e3\u51b3\u7684\u662f\u9769\u547d\u7406\u8bba\u4e0e\u793e\u4f1a\u5236\u5ea6\u5c42\u9762\u7684\u77e5\u8bc6\u6765\u6e90\u95ee\u9898\u3002<\/span><\/span>\n\t<\/p>\n

\n\t\t\u7b2c\u4e09\u6b21\u8865\u8bfe\u5728\u65b0\u4e2d\u56fd\u6210\u7acb\u4e4b\u540e<\/strong><\/span>\u3002 \u9762\u5bf9\u4e00\u7a77\u4e8c\u767d\u7684\u5de5\u4e1a\u57fa\u7840\uff0c\u4e2d\u56fd\u5168\u9762\u5b66\u4e60\u82cf\u8054\uff0c\u4ece156\u9879\u91cd\u70b9\u5de5\u7a0b\u5230\u6574\u5957\u7406\u5de5\u79d1\u6559\u80b2\u4f53\u7cfb\uff0c\u5b8c\u6210\u4e86\u5de5\u4e1a\u5316\u7684\u77e5\u8bc6\u5960\u57fa\u3002<\/span><\/span>\n\t<\/p>\n

\n\t\t\u7b2c\u56db\u6b21\u8865\u8bfe\u59cb\u4e8e\u6539\u9769\u5f00\u653e\u3002<\/strong><\/span> \u8fd9\u4e00\u6b21\u7684\u5b66\u4e60\u5bf9\u8c61\u662f\u897f\u65b9\u79d1\u5b66\u6280\u672f\uff0c\u5e02\u573a\u7ecf\u6d4e\u4f53\u7cfb\uff0c\u7ecf\u6d4e\u5b66\u3001\u7ba1\u7406\u5b66\u3001\u6cd5\u5b66\u7684\u6559\u79d1\u4e66\u6210\u6279\u7ffb\u8bd1\u5f15\u8fdb\uff0c\u5927\u6279\u7559\u5b66\u751f\u8d1f\u7b08\u6d77\u5916\uff0c\u897f\u65b9\u7ecf\u6d4e\u5b66\u7684\u6559\u6750\u4e0e\u7406\u8bba\u8303\u5f0f\u5168\u9762\u8fdb\u5165\u4e2d\u56fd\u7684\u5927\u5b66\u8bfe\u5802\u3002<\/span><\/span>\n\t<\/p>\n

\n\t\t\u56db\u6b21\u8865\u8bfe\uff0c\u5404\u6709\u5176\u5386\u53f2\u5fc5\u7136\u6027\uff0c\u4e5f\u90fd\u53d6\u5f97\u4e86\u5386\u53f2\u6027\u6210\u5c31\u3002\u4eca\u5929\u4e2d\u56fd\u7684\u5de5\u4e1a\u4f53\u7cfb\u4e4b\u5b8c\u6574\u3001\u79d1\u6280\u8bba\u6587\u6570\u91cf\u4e4b\u5e9e\u5927\u3001\u5de5\u7a0b\u80fd\u529b\u4e4b\u5f3a\u5927\uff0c\u90fd\u4e0e\u8fd9\u4e00\u767e\u591a\u5e74\u7684\u6301\u7eed\u8865\u8bfe\u5bc6\u4e0d\u53ef\u5206\u3002<\/span><\/span>\n\t<\/p>\n

\n\t\t\u4f46\u662f\uff0c\u5fc5\u987b\u6e05\u9192\u5730\u770b\u5230\uff1a<\/span>\u8865\u8bfe\u662f\u4e00\u79cd\u7279\u5b9a\u5386\u53f2\u9636\u6bb5\u7684\u5b66\u4e60\u59ff\u6001\uff0c\u800c\u4e0d\u662f\u4e00\u79cd\u53ef\u4ee5\u6c38\u4e45\u6301\u7eed\u7684\u77e5\u8bc6\u6218\u7565\u3002<\/strong><\/span> \u8865\u8bfe\u65f6\u4ee3\u7684\u7279\u5f81\u662f\u201c\u4ee5\u5b66\u4e60\u4e3a\u4e3b\u3001\u4ee5\u8ffd\u8d76\u4e3a\u7eb2\u201d\uff0c\u5b66\u751f\u6781\u5c11\u6709\u5bf9\u8001\u5e08\u77e5\u8bc6\u4f53\u7cfb\u8fdb\u884c\u7cfb\u7edf\u6027\u8d28\u7591\u7684\u7acb\u573a\u4e0e\u80fd\u529b\u3002\u800c\u5f53\u8865\u8bfe\u7684\u5bf9\u8c61\u2014\u2014\u897f\u65b9\u77e5\u8bc6\u4f53\u7cfb\u672c\u8eab\u2014\u2014\u51fa\u73b0\u7cfb\u7edf\u6027\u95ee\u9898\u7684\u65f6\u5019\uff0c\u7ee7\u7eed\u505c\u7559\u5728\u8865\u8bfe\u5fc3\u6001\u4e2d\uff0c\u5c31\u610f\u5473\u7740\u628a\u522b\u4eba\u7684\u9519\u8bef\u4e5f\u4e00\u5e76\u5b66\u6765\uff0c\u751a\u81f3\u5949\u4e3a\u572d\u81ec\u3002<\/span><\/span>\n\t<\/p>\n

\n\t\t\u4eca\u5929\u7684\u4e2d\u56fd\uff0c\u5df2\u7ecf\u5728\u8d8a\u6765\u8d8a\u591a\u7684\u9886\u57df\u8d70\u5230\u4e16\u754c\u524d\u6cbf\uff1a\u6211\u4eec\u6709\u4e86\u5168\u7403\u6700\u5b8c\u6574\u7684\u9ad8\u94c1\u7f51\u7edc\u3001\u9886\u5148\u7684\u7279\u9ad8\u538b\u8f93\u7535\u6280\u672f\u3001\u89c4\u6a21\u7a7a\u524d\u7684\u5236\u9020\u4e1a\u4f53\u7cfb\u3002\u5728\u8fd9\u4e9b\u9886\u57df\uff0c\u201c\u8001\u5e08\u201d\u5df2\u7ecf\u6ca1\u6709\u66f4\u591a\u4e1c\u897f\u53ef\u6559\uff0c\u751a\u81f3\u53cd\u8fc7\u6765\u5728\u5411\u4e2d\u56fd\u5b66\u4e60\u3002\u7ecf\u6d4e\u5b66\u9886\u57df\u540c\u6837\u5982\u6b64\uff1a\u4e2d\u56fd\u7ecf\u6d4e\u56db\u5341\u591a\u5e74\u7684\u9ad8\u901f\u589e\u957f\u3001\u8d85\u5927\u89c4\u6a21\u5e02\u573a\u7684\u6cbb\u7406\u5b9e\u8df5\u3001\u5e94\u5bf9\u591a\u6b21\u5916\u90e8\u51b2\u51fb\u7684\u5b8f\u89c2\u8c03\u63a7\u7ecf\u9a8c\uff0c\u662f\u4efb\u4f55\u897f\u65b9\u6559\u79d1\u4e66\u90fd\u65e0\u6cd5\u89e3\u91ca\u3001\u4e5f\u65e0\u6cd5\u63d0\u4f9b\u7684\u77e5\u8bc6\u5bcc\u77ff\u3002<\/span><\/span>\n\t<\/p>\n

\n\t\t\u8865\u8bfe\u5df2\u7ecf\u7ed3\u675f\u3002\u63a5\u4e0b\u6765\u7684\u4efb\u52a1\uff0c\u662f\u521b\u5efa\u4e2d\u56fd\u81ea\u4e3b\u7684\u77e5\u8bc6\u4f53\u7cfb\u3002<\/strong><\/span> \u800c\u521b\u5efa\u81ea\u4e3b\u77e5\u8bc6\u4f53\u7cfb\u7684\u7b2c\u4e00\u8bfe\uff0c\u6070\u6070\u662f\u5b66\u4f1a\u7528\u897f\u65b9\u5145\u5206\u53d1\u5c55\u7684\u79d1\u5b66\u6807\u5c3a\u53bb\u68c0\u9a8c\u6211\u4eec\u66fe\u7ecf\u4ef0\u671b\u7684\u5bf9\u8c61\u3002<\/span><\/span><\/span>\n\t<\/p>\n<\/section>\n

\n

\n\t\t\u4e8c\u3001\u5982\u4f55\u521b\u5efa\u81ea\u4e3b\u77e5\u8bc6\u4f53\u7cfb\uff1f<\/strong><\/span><\/span>\n\t<\/p>\n<\/section>\n

\n

\n\t\t\u201c\u521b\u5efa\u4e2d\u56fd\u81ea\u4e3b\u7684\u77e5\u8bc6\u4f53\u7cfb\u201d\u5df2\u7ecf\u6210\u4e3a\u5b66\u754c\u5171\u8bc6\uff0c\u4f46\u5bf9\u201c\u5982\u4f55\u521b\u5efa\u201d\u7684\u7406\u89e3\u5374\u5b58\u5728\u91cd\u5927\u5206\u6b67\u3002\u6700\u5e38\u89c1\u7684\u8bef\u533a\uff0c\u662f\u628a\u201c\u81ea\u4e3b\u77e5\u8bc6\u4f53\u7cfb\u201d\u7b49\u540c\u4e8e\u201c\u4e2d\u56fd\u7279\u8272\u77e5\u8bc6\u4f53\u7cfb\u201d\u2014\u2014\u5373\u5f3a\u8c03\u4e2d\u56fd\u7ecf\u9a8c\u3001\u4e2d\u56fd\u9053\u8def\u3001\u4e2d\u56fd\u6587\u5316\u7684\u7279\u6b8a\u6027\uff0c\u4ee5\u6b64\u4e0e\u897f\u65b9\u77e5\u8bc6\u4f53\u7cfb\u76f8\u533a\u522b\u3002<\/span><\/span>\n\t<\/p>\n

\n\t\t\u8fd9\u79cd\u7406\u89e3\u4e0d\u80fd\u8bf4\u5168\u9519\uff0c\u4f46\u5b83\u662f\u4e0d\u5b8c\u6574\u7684\uff0c\u800c\u4e14\u5728\u7b56\u7565\u4e0a\u662f<\/span>\u9632\u5fa1\u6027<\/strong><\/span>\u7684\u3002<\/span><\/span>\n\t<\/p>\n

\n\t\t\"\u56fe\u7247\"
\n\t<\/section>\n

\n\t\t\u524d\u6392\u53f3\u4e00\u4e3a\u672c\u6587\u4f5c\u8005\u6c6a\u6d9b<\/span><\/span>\n\t<\/p>\n<\/section>\n

\n

\n\t\t\uff08\u4e00\uff09\u201c\u81ea\u4e3b\u201d\u4e0d\u7b49\u4e8e\u201c\u7279\u8272\u5316\u201d<\/strong><\/span><\/span>\n\t<\/p>\n<\/section>\n

\n

\n\t\t\u5728\u8865\u8bfe\u65f6\u4ee3\uff0c\u5f3a\u8c03\u201c\u4e2d\u56fd\u7279\u8272\u201d\u6709\u5176\u5408\u7406\u529f\u80fd\uff1a\u4e00\u65b9\u9762\u4ee5\u5b66\u4e60\u4e3a\u4e3b\uff0c\u53e6\u4e00\u65b9\u9762\u9632\u8303\u4e0d\u9002\u7528\u3001\u4e43\u81f3\u4eba\u4e3a\u5ffd\u60a0\u7684\u7406\u8bba\u88ab\u76f4\u63a5\u642c\u7528\u3002<\/span>\u201c\u4e2d\u56fd\u7279\u8272\u201d\u662f\u4e00\u9053\u9632\u706b\u5899\uff0c\u4f46\u9632\u706b\u5899\u4e0d\u662f\u5927\u53a6\u672c\u8eab<\/strong><\/span>\u3002\u5982\u679c\u81ea\u4e3b\u77e5\u8bc6\u4f53\u7cfb\u53ea\u662f\u201c\u4e2d\u56fd\u7279\u6b8a\u8bba\u201d\uff0c\u90a3\u5b83\u5728\u903b\u8f91\u4e0a\u5c31\u627f\u8ba4\u4e86\u897f\u65b9\u7406\u8bba\u4ee3\u8868\u201c\u666e\u904d\u6027\u201d\u3001\u4e2d\u56fd\u7406\u8bba\u4ee3\u8868\u201c\u7279\u6b8a\u6027\u201d\u2014\u2014\u8fd9\u6070\u6070\u662f\u5b66\u672f\u4e0a\u81ea\u6211\u77ee\u5316\u7684\u59ff\u6001\u3002<\/span><\/span>\n\t<\/p>\n

\n\t\t\u4e8b\u5b9e\u4e0a\uff0c\u4ee5\u5f80\u6211\u4eec\u6240\u8bf4\u7684\u201c\u4e2d\u56fd\u7279\u8272\u201d\u547d\u9898\u672c\u8eab\u57fa\u672c\u6d89\u53ca\u7684\u5c31\u662f\u666e\u904d\u6027\u95ee\u9898\u3002\u68c0\u9a8c\u771f\u7406\u7684\u5b9e\u8df5\u6807\u51c6\u3001\u5efa\u8bbe\u56fd\u5bb6\u7684\u76ee\u7684\uff0c\u8fd9\u4e9b\u90fd\u4e0d\u662f\u201c\u53ea\u5bf9\u4e2d\u56fd\u4eba\u6210\u7acb\u201d\u7684\u9053\u7406\uff0c\u800c\u662f\u6d89\u53ca\u4eba\u7c7b\u793e\u4f1a\u53d1\u5c55\u666e\u904d\u89c4\u5f8b\u7684\u8bba\u9898\u3002<\/span><\/span>\n\t<\/p>\n<\/section>\n

\n

\n\t\t\uff08\u4e8c\uff09\u7528\u4ea7\u54c1\u4f5c\u6bd4\u55bb\uff1a\u54c1\u724c\u3001\u9002\u5e94\u6027\u529f\u80fd\u4e0e\u666e\u904d\u6027\u539f\u7406<\/strong><\/span><\/span>\n\t<\/p>\n<\/section>\n

\n

\n\t\t\u4e0d\u59a8\u7528\u4e00\u4e2a\u4ea7\u54c1\u7684\u6bd4\u55bb\u6765\u8bf4\u660e\u8fd9\u4e2a\u95ee\u9898\u3002\u4e00\u4e2a\u6210\u529f\u7684\u56fd\u9645\u4ea7\u54c1\uff0c\u5b83\u662f\u7531\u4e09\u4e2a\u5c42\u6b21\u6784\u6210\uff1a<\/span><\/span>\n\t<\/p>\n

\n\t\t\u7b2c\u4e00\u662f<\/span>\u54c1\u724c<\/strong><\/span>\u3002\u54c1\u724c\u627f\u8f7d\u6587\u5316\u8ba4\u540c\u4e0e\u4fe1\u4efb\uff0c\u5404\u56fd\u7684\u54c1\u724c\u5fc5\u7136\u5404\u6709\u7279\u8272\u3002\u5404\u5382\u5bb6\u4e00\u822c\u90fd\u4f1a\u6709\u5176\u81ea\u8eab\u7684\u4f01\u4e1a\u53ca\u4ea7\u54c1\u7684\u7279\u6709\u54c1\u724c\u3002\u4f8b\u5982\u6bd4\u4e9a\u8fea\u54c1\u724c\u7684\u6c7d\u8f66\u3002<\/span><\/span>\n\t<\/p>\n

\n\t\t\u7b2c\u4e8c\u662f<\/span>\u9002\u5e94\u6027\u529f\u80fd\u8bbe\u8ba1<\/strong><\/span>\u3002\u9500\u5f80\u5bd2\u5e26\u7684\u4ea7\u54c1\u8981\u8010\u5bd2\uff0c\u9500\u5f80\u70ed\u5e26\u7684\u4ea7\u54c1\u8981\u9632\u6f6e\uff0c\u529f\u80fd\u5fc5\u987b\u9002\u5e94\u672c\u5730\u9700\u6c42\u3002\u5404\u4e2a\u5382\u5bb6\u4f1a\u9488\u5bf9\u81ea\u5df1\u9762\u5411\u7684\u5e02\u573a\u8fdb\u884c\u5404\u79cd\u9002\u5e94\u6027\u529f\u80fd\u8bbe\u8ba1\u3002\u4f8b\u5982\u5947\u745e\u9500\u5f80\u56fd\u5916\u7684\u6c7d\u8f66\u4f1a\u9488\u5bf9\u6c99\u6f20\u7b49\u73af\u5883\u8fdb\u884c\u9488\u5bf9\u6027\u7684\u7279\u6709\u529f\u80fd\u8bbe\u8ba1\u3002<\/span><\/span>\n\t<\/p>\n

\n\t\t\u7b2c\u4e09\u662f<\/span>\u9886\u5148\u7684\u6280\u672f\u4e0e\u666e\u904d\u6027\u7684\u79d1\u5b66\u539f\u7406<\/strong><\/span>\u3002\u65e0\u8bba\u9500\u5f80\u54ea\u91cc\u7684\u4ea7\u54c1\uff0c\u7535\u78c1\u5b66\u539f\u7406\u3001\u70ed\u529b\u5b66\u5b9a\u5f8b\u90fd\u662f\u4e00\u6837\u7684\uff1b\u4ea7\u54c1\u7ade\u4e89\u529b\u6700\u7ec8\u6765\u81ea\u5bf9\u666e\u904d\u6027\u79d1\u5b66\u539f\u7406\u7684\u638c\u63e1\u6df1\u5ea6\u3002\u65e0\u8bba\u5409\u5229\u3001\u5c9a\u56fe\u8fd8\u662f\u96f6\u8dd1\u7684\u7eaf\u7535\u52a8\u6c7d\u8f66\uff0c\u57fa\u672c\u7684\u7535\u78c1\u9a71\u52a8\u539f\u7406\u4e0e\u7279\u65af\u62c9\u7684\u7eaf\u7535\u52a8\u8f66\u662f\u4e00\u6837\u7684\u3002<\/span><\/span>\n\t<\/p>\n

\n\t\t\u521b\u5efa\u81ea\u4e3b\u77e5\u8bc6\u4f53\u7cfb\u4e5f\u662f\u540c\u6837\u7684\u9053\u7406\uff1a\u6211\u4eec\u5f53\u7136\u9700\u8981\u81ea\u5df1\u7684\u201c\u54c1\u724c\u201d\uff08\u4e2d\u56fd\u8bdd\u8bed\u3001\u4e2d\u56fd\u53d9\u4e8b\u3001\u4e2d\u56fd\u8bed\u8a00\uff09\uff0c\u4e5f\u9700\u8981\u201c\u9002\u5e94\u6027\u529f\u80fd\u201d\uff08\u89e3\u91ca\u4e2d\u56fd\u7ecf\u9a8c\u3001\u670d\u52a1\u4e2d\u56fd\u5b9e\u8df5\uff09\uff0c\u4f46<\/span>\u51b3\u5b9a\u8fd9\u5957\u4f53\u7cfb\u6700\u7ec8\u9ad8\u5ea6\u7684\uff0c\u662f\u5b83\u5bf9\u666e\u904d\u6027\u89c4\u5f8b\u7684\u628a\u63e1\u80fd\u529b<\/strong><\/span>\u2014\u2014\u5b83\u80fd\u591f\u89e3\u91ca\u591a\u5c11\u8d85\u8d8a\u4e2d\u56fd\u8fb9\u754c\u7684\u73b0\u8c61\uff0c\u80fd\u591f\u4e3a\u5168\u4eba\u7c7b\u63d0\u4f9b\u591a\u5c11\u666e\u904d\u9002\u7528\u7684\u77e5\u8bc6\u3002\u80af\u5b9a\u4e0d\u80fd\u8bf4\u4f46\u51e1\u4e2d\u56fd\u7279\u8272\u7684\uff0c\u5c31\u4e00\u5b9a\u4e0d\u80fd\u9002\u7528\u4e8e\u5176\u4ed6\u56fd\u5bb6\u3002\u54c1\u724c\u53ef\u80fd\u53ea\u5c5e\u4e8e\u4e2d\u56fd\uff0c\u5b8c\u5168\u9488\u5bf9\u4e2d\u56fd\u9700\u8981\u5f00\u53d1\u7684\u9002\u5e94\u6027\u529f\u80fd\u6709\u53ef\u80fd\u53ea\u9002\u7528\u4e8e\u4e2d\u56fd\uff0c\u4f46\u666e\u904d\u6027\u7684\u539f\u7406\u80af\u5b9a\u662f\u9002\u7528\u4e8e\u5176\u4ed6\u56fd\u5bb6\u7684\u3002<\/span><\/span>\n\t<\/p>\n<\/section>\n

\n

\n\t\t\uff08\u4e09\uff09\u4e2d\u56fd\u81ea\u4e3b\u77e5\u8bc6\u4f53\u7cfb\u5e94\u5f53\u66f4\u591a\u5173\u6ce8\u666e\u904d\u6027<\/strong><\/span><\/span>\n\t<\/p>\n<\/section>\n

\n

\n\t\t\u5728\u521b\u5efa\u4e2d\u56fd\u81ea\u4e3b\u77e5\u8bc6\u4f53\u7cfb\u7684\u8fc7\u7a0b\u4e2d\uff0c\u666e\u904d\u539f\u7406\u7684\u7cfb\u7edf\u628a\u63e1\u548c\u521b\u65b0\uff0c\u5176\u91cd\u8981\u6027\u8fdc\u8fdc\u8d85\u8fc7\u524d\u4e24\u4e2a\u53ea\u9002\u7528\u4e8e\u4e2d\u56fd\u5c42\u6b21\u7684\u5185\u5bb9\u3002\u5e76\u4e14\u53ea\u6709\u666e\u904d\u6027\u7684\u5185\u5bb9\uff0c\u624d\u80fd\u8d70\u51fa\u56fd\u95e8\uff0c\u6d41\u884c\u4e8e\u5168\u4e16\u754c\u3002\u56e0\u6b64\uff0c\u4e2d\u56fd\u81ea\u4e3b\u77e5\u8bc6\u4f53\u7cfb\u7684\u5efa\u8bbe\u5e94\u5f53<\/span>\u66f4\u591a\u5173\u6ce8\u666e\u904d\u6027<\/strong><\/span>\uff0c\u8fd9\u624d\u662f\u771f\u6b63\u63d0\u5347\u56fd\u5bb6\u8f6f\u5b9e\u529b\u7684\u65b9\u5411\u3002\u4e00\u5957\u53ea\u89e3\u91ca\u4e2d\u56fd\u3001\u4e0d\u80fd\u89e3\u91ca\u4e16\u754c\u7684\u77e5\u8bc6\u4f53\u7cfb\uff0c\u65e0\u6cd5\u8d62\u5f97\u4e16\u754c\u8303\u56f4\u5185\u7684\u5b66\u672f\u5c0a\u91cd\uff0c\u4e5f\u65e0\u6cd5\u652f\u6491\u4e00\u4e2a\u5927\u56fd\u7684\u77e5\u8bc6\u9886\u5bfc\u5730\u4f4d\uff0c\u751a\u81f3\u5728\u4eca\u5929\u4e5f\u65e0\u6cd5\u518d\u66f4\u597d\u5730\u9632\u5fa1\u3002<\/span><\/span>\n\t<\/p>\n

\n\t\t\u66f4\u91cd\u8981\u7684\u662f\uff0c\u5f3a\u8c03\u666e\u904d\u6027\u53d6\u5411\uff0c\u624d\u80fd\u63ed\u793a\u4e00\u4e2a\u88ab\u957f\u671f\u5ffd\u89c6\u7684\u4e8b\u5b9e\uff1a<\/span>\u897f\u65b9\u8bb8\u591a\u672c\u5e94\u5177\u6709\u666e\u904d\u6027\u7684\u77e5\u8bc6\u4f53\u7cfb\uff0c\u5176\u79d1\u5b66\u6027\u672c\u8eab\u5b58\u5728\u95ee\u9898\u3002<\/strong><\/span><\/span>\n\t<\/p>\n

\n\t\t\u5728\u81ea\u7136\u79d1\u5b66\u9886\u57df\uff0c\u8fd9\u79cd\u95ee\u9898\u5e76\u4e0d\u660e\u663e\u2014\u2014\u725b\u987f\u529b\u5b66\u3001\u76f8\u5bf9\u8bba\u9002\u7528\u4e8e\u5168\u4e16\u754c\u3001\u5168\u5b87\u5b99\uff0c\u4e2d\u56fd\u7528\u4e0d\u7740\u3001\u4e5f\u6ca1\u6709\u5fc5\u8981\u53bb\u641e\u201c\u4e2d\u56fd\u81ea\u4e3b\u7269\u7406\u5b66\u201d\u3002\u6ca1\u6709\u4efb\u4f55\u4eba\u4f1a\u4e3b\u5f20\u201c\u4e2d\u56fd\u7684\u4e07\u6709\u5f15\u529b\u5b9a\u5f8b\u4e0d\u540c\u4e8e\u897f\u65b9\u7684\u4e07\u6709\u5f15\u529b\u5b9a\u5f8b\u201d\uff0c\u8fd9\u4e0d\u4ec5\u662f\u56e0\u4e3a\u7269\u7406\u5b66\u7ecf\u53d7\u4f4f\u4e86\u666e\u904d\u6027\u4e25\u683c\u79d1\u5b66\u65b9\u6cd5\u7684\u53cd\u590d\u68c0\u9a8c\uff0c\u66f4\u91cd\u8981\u7684\u662f\u7269\u7406\u5b66\u7684\u57fa\u672c\u7814\u7a76\u65b9\u6cd5\u662f\u57fa\u4e8e\u5168\u4e16\u754c\u516c\u8ba4\u7684\u79d1\u5b66\u65b9\u6cd5\u8fdb\u884c\u7684\u3002<\/span><\/span>\n\t<\/p>\n

\n\t\t\u95ee\u9898\u4e3b\u8981<\/span>\u96c6\u4e2d\u5728\u793e\u4f1a\u79d1\u5b66\u9886\u57df\uff0c\u5c24\u5176\u662f\u897f\u65b9\u7ecf\u6d4e\u5b66<\/strong><\/span>\u3002\u5982\u679c\u897f\u65b9\u53d1\u5c55\u7684\u77e5\u8bc6\u4f53\u7cfb\u672c\u8eab\u662f\u5f88\u5b8c\u5584\u7684\uff0c\u6211\u4eec\u5176\u5b9e\u5e76\u4e0d\u9700\u8981\u592a\u591a\u5f3a\u8c03\u521b\u5efa\u81ea\u4e3b\u77e5\u8bc6\u4f53\u7cfb\u7684\u95ee\u9898\u3002\u4f46\u95ee\u9898\u5c31\u5728\u4e8e\u897f\u65b9\u793e\u4f1a\u5b66\u5c24\u5176\u7ecf\u6d4e\u5b66\u95ee\u9898\u592a\u5927\u3002\u8fd9\u4e9b\u95ee\u9898\u5176\u5b9e\u5728\u897f\u65b9\u5b66\u672f\u754c\u5185\u90e8\u65e9\u5c31\u6709\u5f88\u5927\u4e89\u8bae\uff0c\u5c24\u5176\u662f\u7269\u7406\u5b66\u4e0e\u6570\u5b66\u754c\u5bf9\u897f\u65b9\u7ecf\u6d4e\u5b66\u666e\u904d\u5b58\u5728\u9119\u89c6\u94fe\u3002\u7269\u7406\u5b66\u5bb6\u4eec\u641e\u4e0d\u660e\u767d\u897f\u65b9\u7ecf\u6d4e\u5b66\u600e\u4e48\u80fd\u5728\u79d1\u5b66\u4e0a\u81ea\u5706\u5176\u8bf4\uff0c\u5982\u4f55\u901a\u8fc7\u6d4b\u91cf\u9a8c\u8bc1\u5176\u7406\u8bba\uff0c\u800c\u897f\u65b9\u7ecf\u6d4e\u5b66\u7fa4\u4f53\u5219\u6709\u76f8\u5f53\u591a\u7684\u4eba\u8ba4\u4e3a\u5176\u7406\u8bba\u662f\u4e0d\u9700\u8981\u68c0\u9a8c\u7684\uff0c\u53ea\u8981\u81ea\u8eab\u5b8c\u7f8e\u5c31\u53ef\u4ee5\u4e86\u3002\u8fd9\u79cd\u89c2\u5ff5\u662f\u5168\u4e16\u754c\u4e00\u5207\u7269\u7406\u5b66\u5bb6\u4eec\u90fd\u4e0d\u53ef\u80fd\u63a5\u53d7\u7684\u3002\u800c\u8fd9\u4e9b\u7ecf\u6d4e\u5b66\u5bb6\u4f7f\u7528\u5927\u91cf\u6570\u5b66\u5de5\u5177\uff0c\u4f46\u5374\u6781\u5c11\u5bf9\u6570\u5b66\u505a\u51fa\u4ec0\u4e48\u8d21\u732e\u3002\u7387\u5148\u5f15\u8fdb\u897f\u65b9\u7ecf\u6d4e\u5b66\u7684\u4e2d\u56fd\u4eba\u6c11\u5927\u5b66\u9ad8\u9e3f\u4e1a\u6559\u6388\u4e5f\u8bf4\uff0c\u7ecf\u6d4e\u5b66\u5bb6\u6570\u5b66\u529f\u5e95\u666e\u904d\u4e0e\u6570\u5b66\u4e13\u4e1a\u76f8\u6bd4\u6ca1\u6709\u4f18\u52bf\uff0c\u8981\u5efa\u7acb\u5176\u751f\u5b58\u7684\u4ef7\u503c\u4e3b\u8981\u9760\u7ecf\u6d4e\u5185\u5bb9\u3002\u4f46\u771f\u6b63\u7684\u7ecf\u6d4e\u9886\u57df\uff0c\u4f8b\u5982\u4f01\u4e1a\u754c\u7b49\uff0c\u4f1a\u5927\u91cf\u5730\u5b66\u4e60\u4f1a\u8ba1\u3001\u8425\u9500\u3001\u5e93\u5b58\u7ba1\u7406\u3001\u4f01\u4e1a\u7ba1\u7406\u3001\u56fd\u9645\u8d38\u6613\u5b9e\u52a1\u3001\u4ef7\u503c\u5de5\u7a0b\u7b49\u77e5\u8bc6\uff0c\u6709\u8c01\u53bb\u5b66\u4e60\u897f\u65b9\u7ecf\u6d4e\u5b66\u7684\uff1f\u6709\u54ea\u4e2a\u4f01\u4e1a\u5bb6\u8ba4\u4e3a\u897f\u65b9\u7ecf\u6d4e\u5b66\u6709\u4ef7\u503c\u7684\uff1f\u9664\u4e86\u6781\u5c11\u6570\u5982<\/span><\/span>\u74e6\u897f\u91cc\u00b7\u5217\u6602\u60d5\u592b<\/span>\u521b\u9020\u7684<\/span><\/span>\u6295\u5165\u4ea7\u51fa\u6cd5\u7b49\u83b7\u5f97\u5b9e\u9645\u5e94\u7528\u5916\uff0c\u897f\u65b9\u7ecf\u6d4e\u5b66\u7edd\u5927\u591a\u6570\u77e5\u8bc6\u5185\u5bb9\u9664\u4e86\u641e\u4e71\u4eba\u4eec\u7684\u601d\u7ef4\u3001\u4e3a\u5f88\u591a\u6df1\u4fe1\u8fd9\u5957\u7406\u8bba\u7684\u5b66\u8005\u64cd\u63a7\u7684\u56fd\u5bb6\u5236\u9020\u7ecf\u6d4e\u56f0\u5883\u4ee5\u5916\uff0c\u6beb\u65e0\u610f\u4e49\u548c\u7528\u5904\u3002<\/span><\/span>\n\t<\/p>\n

\n\t\t\u4f46\u662f\uff0c\u897f\u65b9\u7ecf\u6d4e\u5b66\u4ee5\u9ad8\u5ea6\u6570\u5b66\u5316\u8457\u79f0\uff0c\u53c8\u6709\u8bfa\u8d1d\u5c14\u7ecf\u6d4e\u5b66\u5956\u7684\u5149\u73af\u52a0\u8eab\uff0c\u53f7\u79f0\u793e\u4f1a\u5b66\u4e4b\u738b\uff0c\u770b\u8d77\u6765\u201c\u6bd4\u8f83\u552c\u4eba\u201d\u3002\u5bf9\u793e\u4f1a\u7cbe\u82f1\u3001\u653f\u7b56\u5236\u5b9a\u8005\u3001\u653f\u5e9c\u9886\u5bfc\u5c42\u5f71\u54cd\u5de8\u5927\u3002\u5176\u6570\u5b66\u6a21\u578b\u7cbe\u5de7\u3001\u8ba1\u91cf\u65b9\u6cd5\u7e41\u590d\u3001\u83b7\u5956\u7406\u7531\u52a8\u542c\uff0c\u8fd9\u4e09\u6837\u4e1c\u897f\u5408\u5728\u4e00\u8d77\uff0c\u6784\u6210\u4e86\u4e00\u79cd\u5f3a\u5927\u7684\u6743\u5a01\u6c14\u573a\uff0c\u8ba9\u5f88\u591a\u5b66\u8005\u4e0d\u6562\u6000\u7591\u3001\u5176\u7e41\u6742\u7684\u6570\u5b66\u4f53\u7cfb\u8ba9\u4eba\u5373\u4f7f\u60f3\u53bb\u6000\u7591\uff0c\u5f80\u5f80\u4e5f\u611f\u89c9\u65e0\u4ece\u4e0b\u624b\u3002\u56e0\u4e3a\u7f3a\u5c11\u7edf\u4e00\u6d4b\u91cf\u5b66\u7684\u652f\u6301\uff0c\u4eba\u4eec\u96be\u4ee5\u5bf9\u5176\u5728\u6700\u539f\u59cb\u7684\u6839\u57fa\u4e0a\u8fdd\u53cd\u79d1\u5b66\u6027\u6709\u6548\u7406\u6e05\u3002\u5f53\u6211\u5efa\u7acb\u4e86\u7edf\u4e00\u6d4b\u91cf\u5b66\u4e4b\u540e\uff0c\u5bf9\u897f\u65b9\u7ecf\u6d4e\u5b66\u7684\u4e0d\u79d1\u5b66\u6027\u5c31\u53ef\u4ee5\u5f88\u5bb9\u6613\u770b\u6e05\u4e86\u3002\u7edf\u4e00\u6d4b\u91cf\u5b66\u662f\u4e00\u5207\u5b66\u79d1\u662f\u5426\u53ef\u4ee5\u79f0\u4e3a\u79d1\u5b66\u7684\u6700\u57fa\u7840\u6807\u51c6\uff0c\u7ecf\u6d4e\u5b66\u540c\u6837\u5982\u6b64\uff0c\u4e0d\u53ef\u80fd\u4f8b\u5916\u3002<\/span><\/span>\n\t<\/p>\n

\n\t\t\u6570\u5b66\u5316\u4e0d\u7b49\u4e8e\u79d1\u5b66\u5316\uff0c\u8bfa\u5956\u5149\u73af\u4e0d\u7b49\u4e8e\u79d1\u5b66\u771f\u7406\u6027<\/strong><\/span>\u3002 \u5224\u65ad\u4e00\u4e2a\u77e5\u8bc6\u4f53\u7cfb\u662f\u5426\u79d1\u5b66\uff0c\u53ea\u80fd\u4f9d\u636e\u79d1\u5b66\u672c\u8eab\u7684\u666e\u904d\u65b9\u6cd5\u8bba\u2014\u2014\u7edf\u4e00\u6d4b\u91cf\u5b66\u7684\u6807\u51c6\uff0c\u800c\u4e0d\u80fd\u4f9d\u636e\u5b83\u4f7f\u7528\u4e86\u591a\u5c11\u6570\u5b66\u3001\u83b7\u5f97\u4e86\u591a\u5c11\u5956\u9879\u3002\u8fd9\u6b63\u662f\u672c\u6587\u8981\u7cfb\u7edf\u5c55\u5f00\u7684\u5de5\u4f5c\u3002<\/span><\/span>\n\t<\/p>\n<\/section>\n

\n

\n\t\t\u4e09\u3001\u4ee52026\u5e74\u7ecf\u6d4e\u5b66\u8bfa\u5956\u970d\u5c14\u7684\u7406\u8bba\u4e3a\u5f15\u5b50\u7cfb\u7edf\u9610\u660e\u897f\u65b9\u7ecf\u6d4e\u5b66\u7684\u4e0d\u79d1\u5b66\u6027\u2014\u2014\u603b\u4f53\u601d\u8def<\/strong><\/span><\/span>\n\t<\/p>\n

\n\t\t\u8981\u5bf9\u897f\u65b9\u7ecf\u6d4e\u5b66\u7684\u79d1\u5b66\u6027\u8fdb\u884c\u7cfb\u7edf\u68c0\u9a8c\uff0c\u4e0d\u80fd\u505c\u7559\u5728\u62bd\u8c61\u8bae\u8bba\u4e0a\uff0c\u9700\u8981\u9009\u53d6\u4e00\u4e2a\u5177\u4f53\u6837\u672c\uff0c\u6cbf\u7740\u79d1\u5b66\u65b9\u6cd5\u7684\u6807\u5c3a\u4e00\u6b65\u6b65\u5730\u89e3\u5256\u3002\u672c\u6587\u7684\u603b\u4f53\u601d\u8def\u53ef\u4ee5\u6982\u62ec\u4e3a\u4e00\u5e45\u8bba\u8bc1\u5730\u56fe\uff1a<\/span><\/span>\n\t<\/p>\n

\n\t\t\u7b2c\u4e00\u6b65\uff0c\u9009\u5b9a\u7406\u8bba\u6837\u672c\u3002<\/strong><\/span> \u6211\u4eec\u9009\u53d62026\u5e74\u8bfa\u8d1d\u5c14\u7ecf\u6d4e\u5b66\u5956\u5f97\u4e3b\u970d\u5c141978\u5e74\u53d1\u8868\u4e8e\u300a\u653f\u6cbb\u7ecf\u6d4e\u5b66\u6742\u5fd7\u300b\u7684\u8bba\u6587\u300a\u751f\u547d\u5468\u671f\u2014\u6301\u4e45\u6536\u5165\u5047\u8bf4\u7684\u968f\u673a\u542b\u4e49\u300b\uff08Stochastic Implications of the Life Cycle\u2013Permanent Income Hypothesis: Theory and Evidence\uff09\u3002\u9009\u62e9\u8fd9\u7bc7\u8bba\u6587\u4f5c\u4e3a\u89e3\u5256\u6837\u672c\uff0c\u6709\u4e09\u91cd\u7406\u7531\uff1a\u5176\u4e00\uff0c\u5b83\u662f\u672c\u5e74\u5ea6\u8bfa\u5956\u6388\u5956\u7684\u6838\u5fc3\u5960\u57fa\u6027\u6210\u679c\uff0c\u4ee3\u8868\u7740\u897f\u65b9\u5b8f\u89c2\u7ecf\u6d4e\u5b66\u6700\u53d7\u63a8\u5d07\u7684\u201c\u5fae\u89c2\u57fa\u7840\u201d\u8303\u5f0f\uff1b\u5176\u4e8c\uff0c\u5b83\u81ea\u8eab\u7ed3\u6784\u5b8c\u6574\u2014\u2014\u524d\u63d0\u5047\u8bbe\u3001\u7406\u8bba\u63a8\u5bfc\u3001\u53ef\u68c0\u9a8c\u542b\u4e49\u3001\u8ba1\u91cf\u68c0\u9a8c\u4e00\u5e94\u4ff1\u5168\uff0c\u9002\u5408\u4f5c\u4e3a\u65b9\u6cd5\u8bba\u5206\u6790\u7684\u5b8c\u6574\u6807\u672c\uff1b\u5176\u4e09\uff0c\u5b83\u5e76\u975e\u5b64\u7acb\u7684\u521b\u9020\uff0c\u800c\u662f\u5efa\u7acb\u5728\u7406\u6027\u9884\u671f\u3001\u751f\u547d\u5468\u671f\u5047\u8bf4\u3001\u6301\u4e45\u6536\u5165\u5047\u8bf4\u3001\u968f\u673a\u6e38\u8d70\u7406\u8bba\u3001\u9785\u7406\u8bba<\/span>\u4e94\u5927\u57fa\u7840\u7406\u8bba\u4e4b\u4e0a\u2014\u2014\u89e3\u5256\u5b83\uff0c\u5c31\u7b49\u4e8e\u89e3\u5256\u4e86\u534a\u4e2a\u73b0\u4ee3\u5b8f\u89c2\u7ecf\u6d4e\u5b66\u3002<\/span><\/span>\n\t<\/p>\n

\n\t\t\u7b2c\u4e8c\u6b65\uff0c\u786e\u7acb\u65b9\u6cd5\u6807\u5c3a\u3002<\/strong><\/span> \u68c0\u9a8c\u7406\u8bba\u79d1\u5b66\u6027\u7684\u6807\u5c3a\uff0c\u6765\u81ea\u5bf9\u79d1\u5b66\u53d1\u5c55\u53f2\u7684\u7ecf\u9a8c\u603b\u7ed3\u3002\u4e00\u822c\u79d1\u5b66\u7814\u7a76\u8981\u7ecf\u5386\u4e94\u4e2a\u9636\u6bb5\uff1a<\/span><\/span>\n\t<\/p>\n

\n\t\t\u7b2c\u4e00\u9636\u6bb5\u662f\u5bf9\u7814\u7a76\u5bf9\u8c61\u8fdb\u884c\u539f\u59cb\u6d4b\u91cf\uff1b<\/span><\/span>\n\t<\/p>\n

\n\t\t\u7b2c\u4e8c\u9636\u6bb5\u662f\u5904\u7406\u6d4b\u91cf\u8bef\u5dee\uff08\u5305\u62ec\u7cfb\u7edf\u8bef\u5dee\u4e0e\u968f\u673a\u8bef\u5dee\uff09\u5e76\u53cd\u590d\u6d4b\u91cf\uff1b<\/span><\/span>\n\t<\/p>\n

\n\t\t\u7b2c\u4e09\u9636\u6bb5\u662f\u5728\u6d4b\u91cf\u6570\u636e\u57fa\u7840\u4e0a\u5f52\u7eb3\u3001\u56de\u5f52\u3001\u62df\u5408\u51fa\u7ecf\u9a8c\u516c\u5f0f\uff1b<\/span><\/span>\n\t<\/p>\n

\n\t\t\u7b2c\u56db\u9636\u6bb5\u662f\u8fdb\u4e00\u6b65\u5206\u6790\u56e0\u679c\u5173\u7cfb\uff0c\u901a\u8fc7\u516c\u7406\u5316\u6216\u8fd8\u539f\u7b49\u4e0a\u5347\u5230\u4e25\u683c\u7684\u56e0\u679c\u89c4\u5f8b\uff1b<\/span><\/span>\n\t<\/p>\n

\n\t\t\u7b2c\u4e94\u9636\u6bb5\u662f\u7528\u65b0\u7684\u6d4b\u91cf\u6570\u636e\u5bf9\u7406\u8bba\u8fdb\u884c\u518d\u68c0\u9a8c\u3002<\/span><\/span>\n\t<\/p>\n

\n\t\t\u6d4b\u91cf\u2014\u2014\u8ba4\u8bc6\u2014\u2014\u518d\u6d4b\u91cf\u2014\u2014\u518d\u8ba4\u8bc6\uff0c\u4ee5\u81f3\u5faa\u73af\u65e0\u7a77\u3002<\/span><\/span>\n\t<\/p>\n

\n\t\t\u8fd9\u628a\u6807\u5c3a\u7684\u5177\u4f53\u5185\u5bb9\u53ca\u5176\u5728\u91cf\u5b50\u7406\u8bba\u8bde\u751f\u53f2\u4e0a\u7684\u7ecf\u5178\u4f53\u73b0\uff0c\u5c06\u5728\u4e0b\u7bc7\u7b2c\u516d\u7ae0\u8be6\u7ec6\u5c55\u5f00\u3002\u4e0a\u7bc7\u53ea\u9700\u5148\u8bb0\u4f4f\u8fd9\u628a\u6807\u5c3a\u7684\u5b58\u5728\u3002<\/span><\/span>\n\t<\/p>\n

\n\t\t\u7b2c\u4e09\u6b65\uff0c\u5c55\u5f00\u6279\u8bc4\u3002<\/strong><\/span> \u7528\u4e94\u9636\u6bb5\u6807\u5c3a\u9010\u4e00\u8861\u91cf\u970d\u5c14\u7406\u8bba\u53ca\u5176\u57fa\u7840\u7406\u8bba\uff0c\u53ef\u4ee5\u5f97\u51fa\u897f\u65b9\u7ecf\u6d4e\u5b66\u4e0d\u79d1\u5b66\u6027\u7684\u56db\u79cd\u4e3b\u8981\u4f53\u73b0\uff1a<\/span><\/span>\n\t<\/p>\n

\n\t\t\u4e00\u662f\u8ba1\u91cf\u7ecf\u6d4e\u5b66\u201c\u6390\u5934\u53bb\u5c3e\u201d\uff0c\u8df3\u8fc7\u4e86\u6d4b\u91cf\u4e0e\u8bef\u5dee\u5206\u6790\u9636\u6bb5\uff0c\u76f4\u63a5\u4ece\u7edf\u8ba1\u56de\u5f52\u8d77\u6b65\uff0c\u540e\u9762\u53c8\u53bb\u6389\u56e0\u679c\u5206\u6790\u9636\u6bb5\uff0c\u76f4\u63a5\u628a\u56de\u5f52\u548c\u76f8\u5173\u5f53\u56e0\u679c\u3002\u8bf7\u6ce8\u610f\uff0c\u8fd9\u4e0d\u662f\u970d\u5c14\u8fd9\u4e00\u4e2a\u7406\u8bba\u7684\u95ee\u9898\uff0c\u800c\u662f\u6240\u6709\u897f\u65b9\u7ecf\u6d4e\u5b66\u7684\u95ee\u9898\uff0c\u751a\u81f3\u8ba1\u91cf\u7ecf\u6d4e\u5b66\u8fd9\u95e8\u5b66\u79d1\u672c\u8eab\u538b\u6839\u5c31\u662f\u4e0d\u8be5\u5b58\u5728\u7684\u3002<\/span><\/span>\n\t<\/p>\n

\n\t\t\u4e8c\u662f\u4ee5\u201c\u7406\u6027\u9884\u671f\u201d\u4e3a\u4ee3\u8868\u7684\u65b9\u6cd5\u8bba\u524d\u63d0\u672c\u8eab\u5c31\u662f\u9519\u8bef\u7684\u3001\u7ecf\u4e0d\u8d77\u63a8\u6572\u7684\uff0c\u7406\u6027\u9884\u671f\u672c\u8eab\u5f88\u4e0d\u7406\u6027\u2014\u2014\u5b83\u5c45\u7136\u5047\u8bbe\u9884\u671f\u4e0d\u5b58\u5728\u7cfb\u7edf\u504f\u5dee\u3002\u4e00\u5207\u79d1\u5b66\u7814\u7a76\u6700\u521d\u7684\u6d4b\u91cf\u8fc7\u7a0b\u6700\u5927\u7684\u96be\u9898\u3001\u6700\u5927\u7684\u5de5\u4f5c\u4efb\u52a1\u5c31\u662f\u53d1\u73b0\u5e76\u5904\u7406\u7cfb\u7edf\u8bef\u5dee\u3002\u5047\u8bbe\u4e0d\u5b58\u5728\u7cfb\u7edf\u504f\u5dee\uff0c\u8fd9\u7b49\u540c\u4e8e\u8bf4\u201c\u5047\u8bbe\u6211\u7684\u7406\u8bba\u4e0d\u5b58\u5728\u4efb\u4f55\u504f\u5dee\uff0c\u4e0d\u5b58\u5728\u4efb\u4f55\u9519\u8bef\uff0c\u90a3\u4e48\u6211\u7684\u7406\u8bba\u5c31\u80af\u5b9a\u6b63\u786e\u201d\u3002<\/span><\/span>\n\t<\/p>\n

\n\t\t\u4e09\u662f\u628a\u7edf\u8ba1\u76f8\u5173\u4e0e\u663e\u8457\u6027\u68c0\u9a8c\u5f53\u4f5c\u79d1\u5b66\u7814\u7a76\u7684\u7ec8\u70b9\uff0c\u7528\u4eba\u4e3a\u7ea6\u5b9a\u7684\u663e\u8457\u6027\u6c34\u5e73\u66ff\u4ee3\u4e86\u5bf9\u56e0\u679c\u89c4\u5f8b\u7684\u4e25\u683c\u8ffd\u6c42\u3002<\/span><\/span>\n\t<\/p>\n

\n\t\t\u56db\u662f\u4f5c\u4e3a\u6574\u4e2a\u7406\u8bba\u5730\u57fa\u7684\u201c\u6548\u7528\u201d\u6982\u5ff5\u4e0d\u53ef\u6d4b\u91cf\uff0c\u800c\u7ecf\u6d4e\u53ca\u5de5\u7a0b\u9886\u57df\u7684\u4ef7\u503c\u5de5\u7a0b\u65e9\u5df2\u63d0\u4f9b\u4e86\u53ef\u6d4b\u91cf\u7684\u66ff\u4ee3\u601d\u8def\uff0c\u897f\u65b9\u7ecf\u6d4e\u5b66\u5bb6\u4eec\u5374\u5bf9\u6b64\u5b8c\u5168\u89c6\u800c\u4e0d\u89c1\u3002\u540c\u65f6\uff0c\u73b0\u5b9e\u7684\u7ecf\u6d4e\u9886\u57df\u9664\u4e86\u91d1\u878d\u7b49\u6781\u5c11\u90e8\u95e8\uff0c\u51e0\u4e4e\u6ca1\u6709\u54ea\u4e2a\u4f01\u4e1a\u4f1a\u53bb\u5b66\u4e60\u897f\u65b9\u7ecf\u6d4e\u5b66\u3002\u8fd9\u672c\u8eab\u5c31\u5145\u5206\u8bc1\u660e\u4e86\u897f\u65b9\u7ecf\u6d4e\u5b66\u5bf9\u771f\u6b63\u7684\u7ecf\u6d4e\u6765\u8bf4\u6beb\u65e0\u4ef7\u503c\u53ef\u8a00\u3002<\/span><\/span>\n\t<\/p>\n

\n\t\t\u8fd9\u897f\u65b9\u7ecf\u6d4e\u5b66\u975e\u79d1\u5b66\u6027\u7684\u56db\u79cd\u4e3b\u8981\u4f53\u73b0\uff0c\u6784\u6210\u4e0b\u7bc7\u7b2c\u516d\u81f3\u5341\u7ae0\u7684\u5185\u5bb9\u3002<\/span><\/span>\n\t<\/p>\n

\n\t\t\u6982\u62ec\u5730\u8bf4\uff1a<\/span>\u4e0a\u7bc7\u8d1f\u8d23\u628a\u201c\u5f15\u5b50\u201d\u7acb\u8d77\u6765<\/strong><\/span>\u2014\u2014\u8bf4\u660e\u4e3a\u4ec0\u4e48\u5fc5\u987b\u68c0\u9a8c\u3001\u9009\u53d6\u4ec0\u4e48\u6837\u672c\u3001\u7528\u54ea\u628a\u6807\u5c3a\uff1b<\/span>\u4e0b\u7bc7\u8d1f\u8d23\u628a\u201c\u89e3\u5256\u201d\u505a\u5f7b\u5e95\uff0c\u628a\u897f\u65b9\u7ecf\u6d4e\u5b66\u7684\u201c\u7956\u575f\u201d\u5228\u6389\u2014\u2014<\/strong><\/span>\u7528\u9002\u7528\u4e8e\u4e00\u5207\u5b66\u79d1\u9886\u57df\u7684\u79d1\u5b66\u6807\u5c3a\u9010\u4e00\u8861\u91cf\uff0c\u7ed9\u51fa\u7cfb\u7edf\u7ed3\u8bba\u3002<\/span><\/span>\n\t<\/p>\n

\n\t\t\u5728\u8fdb\u5165\u68c0\u9a8c\u4e4b\u524d\uff0c\u5fc5\u987b\u5148\u505a\u4e24\u4ef6\u4e8b\uff1a\u5f04\u6e05\u970d\u5c14\u7406\u8bba\u672c\u8eab\u662f\u4ec0\u4e48\uff08\u7b2c\u56db\u8282\uff09\uff0c\u5f04\u6e05\u652f\u6491\u5b83\u7684\u4e94\u5927\u57fa\u7840\u7406\u8bba\u662f\u4ec0\u4e48\uff08\u7b2c\u4e94\u8282\uff09\u3002\u8fd9\u5c31\u50cf\u7ed9\u75c5\u4eba\u52a8\u624b\u672f\u4e4b\u524d\uff0c\u5fc5\u987b\u5148\u5b8c\u6210\u5168\u9762\u7684\u4f53\u68c0\u4e0e\u5f71\u50cf\u68c0\u67e5\u3002<\/span><\/span>\n\t<\/p>\n<\/section>\n

\n

\n\t\t\u56db\u3001\u970d\u5c14\u7406\u8bba\u7b80\u4ecb<\/strong><\/span><\/span>\n\t<\/p>\n<\/section>\n

\n

\n\t\t\uff08\u4e00\uff09\u8bba\u6587\u4e0e\u4f5c\u8005<\/strong><\/span><\/span>\n\t<\/p>\n<\/section>\n

\n

\n\t\t\u7f57\u4f2f\u7279\u00b7\u970d\u5c141943\u5e74\u51fa\u751f\u4e8e\u7f8e\u56fd\u52a0\u5dde\u5e15\u6d1b\u963f\u5c14\u6258\uff0c1967\u5e74\u83b7\u9ebb\u7701\u7406\u5de5\u5b66\u9662\u7ecf\u6d4e\u5b66\u535a\u58eb\u5b66\u4f4d\uff0c\u5bfc\u5e08\u662f1987\u5e74\u8bfa\u8d1d\u5c14\u7ecf\u6d4e\u5b66\u5956\u5f97\u4e3b\u7d22\u6d1b\u3002\u970d\u5c14\u957f\u671f\u4efb\u6559\u4e8e\u65af\u5766\u798f\u5927\u5b66\uff0c\u7814\u7a76\u9886\u57df\u8986\u76d6\u6d88\u8d39\u3001\u5c31\u4e1a\u3001\u901a\u80c0\u3001\u6280\u672f\u4e0e\u5b8f\u89c2\u7ecf\u6d4e\u653f\u7b56\uff0c\u66fe\u4e8e2010\u5e74\u62c5\u4efb\u7f8e\u56fd\u7ecf\u6d4e\u5b66\u4f1a\u4e3b\u5e2d\uff0c\u5e76\u957f\u671f\u62c5\u4efb\u7f8e\u56fd\u56fd\u5bb6\u7ecf\u6d4e\u7814\u7a76\u5c40\uff08NBER\uff09\u7ecf\u6d4e\u5468\u671f\u6d4b\u5b9a\u59d4\u5458\u4f1a\u4e3b\u5e2d\u2014\u2014\u8fd9\u4e2a\u59d4\u5458\u4f1a\u638c\u63e1\u7740\u201c\u7f8e\u56fd\u7ecf\u6d4e\u662f\u5426\u8fdb\u5165\u8870\u9000\u201d\u7684\u5b98\u65b9\u5224\u65ad\u6743\uff0c\u970d\u5c14\u6267\u638c\u8fd9\u4e00\u6743\u529b\u957f\u8fbe46\u5e74\u3002<\/span><\/span>\n\t<\/p>\n

\n\t\t1978\u5e74\uff0c\u970d\u5c14\u5728\u300a\u653f\u6cbb\u7ecf\u6d4e\u5b66\u6742\u5fd7\u300b\uff08Journal of Political Economy\uff09\u7b2c86\u5377\u7b2c6\u671f\u53d1\u8868\u8bba\u6587\u300a\u751f\u547d\u5468\u671f\u2014\u6301\u4e45\u6536\u5165\u5047\u8bf4\u7684\u968f\u673a\u542b\u4e49\uff1a\u7406\u8bba\u4e0e\u8bc1\u636e\u300b\u3002\u8fd9\u7bc7\u8bba\u6587\u88ab\u8ba4\u4e3a\u662f\u73b0\u4ee3\u6d88\u8d39\u7406\u8bba\u548c\u65b0\u53e4\u5178\u5b8f\u89c2\u7ecf\u6d4e\u5b66\u5fae\u89c2\u57fa\u7840\u7684\u91cc\u7a0b\u7891\uff0c\u4e5f\u662f2026\u5e74\u8bfa\u5956\u6388\u5956\u7406\u7531\u4e2d\u76f4\u63a5\u5f15\u7528\u7684\u6838\u5fc3\u6587\u732e\u3002<\/span><\/span>\n\t<\/p>\n<\/section>\n

\n

\n\t\t\uff08\u4e8c\uff09\u7406\u8bba\u524d\u63d0\uff1a\u56db\u6761\u5047\u8bbe<\/strong><\/span><\/span>\n\t<\/p>\n<\/section>\n

\n

\n\t\t\u970d\u5c14\u7684\u6a21\u578b\u5efa\u7acb\u5728\u56db\u6761\u660e\u786e\u7684\u524d\u63d0\u5047\u8bbe\u4e4b\u4e0a\uff1a<\/span><\/span>\n\t<\/p>\n

\n\t\t\u5047\u8bbe\u4e00\uff0c<\/span>\u5b8c\u7f8e\u8d44\u672c\u5e02\u573a<\/strong><\/span>\u3002 \u6d88\u8d39\u8005\u53ef\u4ee5\u6309\u7167\u7edf\u4e00\u5229\u7387\u81ea\u7531\u5730\u50a8\u84c4\u4e0e\u501f\u8d37\uff0c\u4e0d\u5b58\u5728\u6d41\u52a8\u6027\u7ea6\u675f\u3002<\/span><\/span>\n\t<\/p>\n

\n\t\t\u5047\u8bbe\u4e8c\uff0c<\/span>\u7406\u6027\u9884\u671f<\/strong><\/span>\u3002 \u6d88\u8d39\u8005\u5bf9\u672a\u6765\u6536\u5165\u3001\u5229\u7387\u7b49\u53d8\u91cf\u7684\u9884\u671f\uff0c\u662f\u5728\u5145\u5206\u5229\u7528\u4e00\u5207\u53ef\u5f97\u4fe1\u606f\u7684\u57fa\u7840\u4e0a\u5f62\u6210\u7684\uff0c\u9884\u671f\u4e0d\u5b58\u5728\u7cfb\u7edf\u6027\u504f\u5dee\u3002<\/span><\/span>\n\t<\/p>\n

\n\t\t\u5047\u8bbe\u4e09\uff0c<\/span>\u8de8\u671f\u6548\u7528\u6700\u5927\u5316<\/strong><\/span>\u3002 \u6d88\u8d39\u8005\u5728\u6574\u4e2a\u751f\u547d\u5468\u671f\u5185\u5b89\u6392\u6d88\u8d39\u8def\u5f84\uff0c\u76ee\u6807\u662f\u4f7f\u7ec8\u8eab\u603b\u6548\u7528\u6700\u5927\u5316\u3002<\/span><\/span>\n\t<\/p>\n

\n\t\t\u5047\u8bbe\u56db\uff0c<\/span>\u4e8c\u6b21\u6548\u7528\u51fd\u6570<\/strong><\/span>\u3002 \u4e3a\u83b7\u5f97\u786e\u5b9a\u6027\u7684\u89e3\u6790\u7ed3\u8bba\uff0c\u6a21\u578b\u5047\u5b9a\u6548\u7528\u51fd\u6570\u662f\u6d88\u8d39\u7684\u4e8c\u6b21\u578b\u3002<\/span><\/span>\n\t<\/p>\n<\/section>\n

\n

\n\t\t\uff08\u4e09\uff09\u6838\u5fc3\u7ed3\u8bba\uff1a\u6d88\u8d39\u670d\u4ece\u968f\u673a\u6e38\u8d70<\/strong><\/span><\/span>\n\t<\/p>\n<\/section>\n

\n

\n\t\t\u5728\u8fd9\u56db<\/span>\u6761<\/strong><\/span>\u5047\u8bbe\u4e4b\u4e0b\uff0c\u901a\u8fc7\u6c42\u89e3\u6d88\u8d39\u8005\u7684\u8de8\u671f\u6700\u4f18\u5316\u95ee\u9898\uff0c\u53ef\u4ee5\u901a\u8fc7<\/span>\u6d88\u8d39\u6b27\u62c9\u65b9\u7a0b\u63a8\u5bfc\u51fa\u8fb9\u9645\u6548\u7528\u9785\uff1a<\/strong><\/span><\/span>\n\t<\/p>\n

\n\t\tE<\/span>t<\/span>[u\u2032(C<\/span>t+1<\/span>)] = u\u2032(C<\/span>t<\/span>)<\/span><\/span>\n\t<\/p>\n

\n\t\t\u5176\u542b\u4e49\u662f\uff1a\u6d88\u8d39\u8005\u5728\u5f53\u671f\u5bf9\u672a\u6765\u5404\u671f\u6d88\u8d39\u8fb9\u9645\u6548\u7528\u7684\u9884\u671f\uff0c\u7b49\u4e8e\u5f53\u671f\u7684\u8fb9\u9645\u6548\u7528\u3002\u914d\u5408\u4e8c\u6b21\u6548\u7528\u51fd\u6570\u7684\u5047\u8bbe\uff0c\u8fb9\u9645\u6548\u7528\u662f\u6d88\u8d39\u7684\u7ebf\u6027\u51fd\u6570\uff0c\u4ee5\u4e0a\u8fdb\u4e00\u6b65\u53ef\u5f97\u51fa\u7ed3\u8bba\uff1a<\/span><\/span>\n\t<\/p>\n

\n\t\tC<\/span>t+1<\/span>=C<\/span>t<\/span>+ <\/span>\u03b5<\/span>t+1<\/span><\/span>\n\t<\/p>\n

\n\t\t\u4e0b\u4e00\u671f\u6d88\u8d39\u7b49\u4e8e\u5f53\u671f\u6d88\u8d39\u52a0\u4e0a\u4e00\u4e2a\u4e0d\u53ef\u9884\u6d4b\u7684\u968f\u673a\u6270\u52a8\u9879\u2014\u2014\u6d88\u8d39\u670d\u4ece\u968f\u673a\u6e38\u8d70\u3002<\/strong><\/span><\/span>\n\t<\/p>\n

\n\t\t\u8fd9\u5c31\u662f\u970d\u5c14\u7406\u8bba\u57fa\u672c\u8bba\u65ad\u3002\u5b83\u7684\u76f4\u89c2\u542b\u4e49\u662f\uff1a\u5982\u679c\u6d88\u8d39\u8005\u662f\u7406\u6027\u7684\u3001\u4fe1\u606f\u662f\u5145\u5206\u7684\u3001\u6548\u7528\u6700\u5927\u5316\u8de8\u671f\u6210\u7acb\u7684\uff0c\u90a3\u4e48\u6d88\u8d39\u8005\u4f1a\u628a\u4e00\u751f\u4e2d\u53ef\u9884\u671f\u7684\u6536\u5165\u53d8\u5316\u5168\u90e8\u201c\u5e73\u6ed1\u201d\u8fdb\u5f53\u524d\u6d88\u8d39\u4e4b\u4e2d\uff1b\u5f53\u524d\u6d88\u8d39\u5df2\u7ecf\u5305\u542b\u4e86\u5bf9\u672a\u6765\u6536\u5165\u5168\u90e8\u53ef\u9884\u671f\u7684\u4fe1\u606f\uff0c\u4efb\u4f55\u201c\u53ef\u9884\u671f\u201d\u7684\u56e0\u7d20\u90fd\u4e0d\u4f1a\u518d\u5f15\u8d77\u672a\u6765\u6d88\u8d39\u7684\u53d8\u5316\u2014\u2014\u80fd\u5f15\u8d77\u672a\u6765\u6d88\u8d39\u53d8\u5316\u7684\uff0c\u53ea\u5269\u4e0b\u5b8c\u5168\u4e0d\u53ef\u9884\u671f\u7684\u201c\u65b0\u95fb\u201d\uff08news\uff09\u3002\u56e0\u6b64\uff0c\u6d88\u8d39\u7684\u53d8\u5316\u5728\u539f\u5219\u4e0a\u662f\u4e0d\u53ef\u9884\u6d4b\u7684\u3002<\/span><\/span>\n\t<\/p>\n<\/section>\n

\n

\n\t\t\uff08\u56db\uff09\u53ef\u68c0\u9a8c\u542b\u4e49\u4e0e\u5b9e\u8bc1\u68c0\u9a8c<\/strong><\/span><\/span>\n\t<\/p>\n<\/section>\n

\n

\n\t\t\u8fd9\u4e2a\u7406\u8bba\u7ed9\u51fa\u4e86\u6e05\u6670\u7684\u53ef\u68c0\u9a8c\u542b\u4e49\uff1a\u5728\u970d\u5c14\u6a21\u578b\u4e2d\uff0c\u6ede\u540e\u7684\u6536\u5165\u3001\u6ede\u540e\u7684\u8d44\u4ea7\u3001\u6ede\u540e\u7684\u6d88\u8d39\u7b49\u4e00\u5207\u5728\u5f53\u671f\u5df2\u77e5\u7684\u4fe1\u606f\u53d8\u91cf\uff0c\u90fd\u4e0d\u5e94\u5f53\u5bf9\u4e0b\u4e00\u671f\u6d88\u8d39\u7684\u53d8\u5316\u5177\u6709\u9884\u6d4b\u80fd\u529b\u3002\u68c0\u9a8c\u601d\u8def\u662f\uff1a\u4ee5\u4e0b\u4e00\u671f\u6d88\u8d39\u4e3a\u88ab\u89e3\u91ca\u53d8\u91cf\uff0c\u52a0\u5165\u5404\u6ede\u540e\u53d8\u91cf\u8fdb\u884c\u56de\u5f52\u5206\u6790\uff0c\u7136\u540e\u505a\u8054\u5408\u663e\u8457\u6027\u68c0\u9a8c\uff08F\u68c0\u9a8c\uff09\u2014\u2014\u5982\u679c\u7406\u8bba\u6210\u7acb\uff0c\u8fd9\u4e9b\u6ede\u540e\u53d8\u91cf\u7684\u7cfb\u6570\u5e94\u5f53\u8054\u5408\u4e0d\u663e\u8457\u3002<\/span><\/span>\n\t<\/p>\n

\n\t\t\u970d\u5c14\u7684\u68c0\u9a8c\u7ed3\u679c\u662f\u6df7\u5408\u7684\uff1a\u6ede\u540e\u6536\u5165\u53d8\u91cf\u4e0d\u80fd\u62d2\u7edd\u201c\u96f6\u7cfb\u6570\u201d\u7684\u539f\u5047\u8bbe\uff0c\u6ede\u540e\u6d88\u8d39\u53d8\u91cf\u652f\u6301\u57fa\u51c6\u6a21\u578b\uff0c\u4f46\u80a1\u4ef7\u53d8\u91cf\u8868\u73b0\u51fa\u4e00\u5b9a\u7684\u9884\u6d4b\u80fd\u529b\u3002\u970d\u5c14\u7684\u6700\u7ec8\u7ed3\u8bba\u662f\uff1a\u6570\u636e\u652f\u6301\u4e00\u4e2a\u201c\u4fee\u6b63\u7248\u201d\u7684\u751f\u547d\u5468\u671f\u2014\u6301\u4e45\u6536\u5165\u5047\u8bf4\u3002<\/span><\/span>\n\t<\/p>\n

\n\t\t2026\u5e74\u8bfa\u8d1d\u5c14\u7ecf\u6d4e\u5b66\u5956\u7684\u6388\u5956\u7406\u7531\u6307\u51fa\uff0c\u970d\u5c14\u4e0e\u4f0d\u5fb7\u798f\u5fb7\u7684\u7814\u7a76\u628a\u5b8f\u89c2\u7ecf\u6d4e\u5b66\u5efa\u7acb\u5728\u5fae\u89c2\u7ecf\u6d4e\u57fa\u7840\u4e4b\u4e0a\uff0c\u4f7f\u5404\u56fd\u592e\u884c\u4e0e\u653f\u5e9c\u5f97\u4ee5\u7528\u65b0\u4e00\u4ee3\u6a21\u578b\u5b9e\u65bd\u6709\u6548\u7684\u7a33\u5b9a\u653f\u7b56\u3002\u59d4\u5458\u4f1a\u8ba4\u4e3a\uff0c\u4e8c\u4eba\u53d1\u5c55\u4e86\u65b0\u7684\u5b8f\u89c2\u7ecf\u6d4e\u6a21\u578b\uff0c\u663e\u8457\u63d0\u5347\u4e86\u5b9e\u65bd\u6709\u6548\u7a33\u5b9a\u653f\u7b56\u7684\u80fd\u529b\u3002<\/span><\/span>\n\t<\/p>\n<\/section>\n

\n

\n\t\t\uff08\u4e94\uff09\u5148\u57cb\u4e0b\u4e09\u4e2a\u7591\u70b9<\/strong><\/span><\/span>\n\t<\/p>\n<\/section>\n

\n

\n\t\t\u5728\u9882\u626c\u58f0\u4e4b\u5916\uff0c\u7b14\u8005\u5148\u7559\u4e0b\u4e09\u4e2a\u7591\u70b9\uff0c\u4f9b\u8bfb\u8005\u5e26\u7740\u95ee\u9898\u8fdb\u5165\u4e0b\u7bc7\uff1a<\/span><\/span>\n\t<\/p>\n

\n
    \n
  • \n

    \n\t\t\t\t\t\u7591\u70b9\u4e00<\/strong><\/span>\uff1a\u56db\u6761\u524d\u63d0\u5047\u8bbe\u4e2d\uff0c\u201c\u7406\u6027\u9884\u671f\u201d\u5047\u8bbe\u6d88\u8d39\u8005\u80fd\u5145\u5206\u5229\u7528\u4e00\u5207\u4fe1\u606f\u5f62\u6210\u65e0\u504f\u9884\u671f\u2014\u2014\u73b0\u5b9e\u4e2d\u7684\u6d88\u8d39\u8005\u505a\u5f97\u5230\u5417\uff1f\u8fd9\u4e2a\u5047\u8bbe\u672c\u8eab\u7684\u5408\u7406\u6027\uff0c\u9700\u8981\u5355\u72ec\u68c0\u9a8c\u3002<\/span><\/span>\n\t\t\t\t<\/p>\n<\/li>\n

  • \n

    \n\t\t\t\t\t\u7591\u70b9\u4e8c<\/strong><\/span>\uff1a\u5b9e\u8bc1\u68c0\u9a8c\u4e2d\uff0c\u80a1\u4ef7\u53d8\u91cf\u5df2\u7ecf\u8868\u73b0\u51fa\u9884\u6d4b\u80fd\u529b\uff0c\u7406\u8bba\u4e0a\u8fd9\u5e94\u5f53\u6784\u6210\u5bf9\u201c\u6d88\u8d39\u968f\u673a\u6e38\u8d70\u201d\u7684\u5426\u5b9a\u6027\u8bc1\u636e\uff0c\u662f\u4e00\u4e2a\u7406\u8bba\u7684\u201c\u53cd\u4f8b\u201d\uff0c\u4f46\u8bba\u6587\u4ee5\u201c\u4fee\u6b63\u7248\u201d\u7684\u8bf4\u6cd5\u4fdd\u7559\u4e86\u539f\u7406\u8bba\u2014\u2014\u8fd9\u79cd\u5904\u7406\u65b9\u5f0f\u5728\u4e25\u683c\u7684\u79d1\u5b66\u68c0\u9a8c\u4e2d\u610f\u5473\u7740\u4ec0\u4e48\uff1f<\/span><\/span>\n\t\t\t\t<\/p>\n<\/li>\n

  • \n

    \n\t\t\t\t\t\u7591\u70b9\u4e09<\/strong><\/span>\uff1a\u6574\u4e2a\u68c0\u9a8c\u4f9d\u8d56\u8054\u5408\u663e\u8457\u6027\u68c0\u9a8c\uff0c\u800c\u201c\u663e\u8457\u6027\u201d\u672c\u8eab\u662f\u4e00\u4e2a\u4eba\u4e3a\u7ea6\u5b9a\u7684\u7edf\u8ba1\u95e8\u69db\u2014\u2014\u8fd9\u79cd\u95e8\u69db\u80fd\u5145\u5f53\u79d1\u5b66\u771f\u7406\u7684\u88c1\u5224\u5417\uff1f<\/span><\/span>\n\t\t\t\t<\/p>\n<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<\/section>\n

    \n\t\t\u8fd9\u4e09\u4e2a\u7591\u70b9\uff0c\u5206\u522b\u5bf9\u5e94\u4e0b\u7bc7\u7b2c\u516b\u3001\u4e03\u3001\u4e5d\u7ae0\u7684\u6279\u8bc4\u3002\u800c\u8981\u771f\u6b63\u7406\u89e3\u970d\u5c14\u7406\u8bba\u7684\u5730\u57fa\u662f\u5426\u7262\u56fa\uff0c\u8fd8\u987b\u5148\u8003\u5bdf\u5b83\u811a\u4e0b\u7684\u4e94\u5757\u4e3b\u8981\u57fa\u77f3\u3002<\/span><\/span>\n\t<\/p>\n<\/section>\n

    \n

    \n\t\t\u4e94\u3001\u4f5c\u4e3a\u970d\u5c14\u7406\u8bba\u5f62\u6210\u524d\u63d0\u7684\u4e94\u4e2a\u4e3b\u8981\u57fa\u7840\u7406\u8bba\u4ecb\u7ecd<\/strong><\/span><\/span>\n\t<\/p>\n<\/section>\n

    \n\t\u970d\u5c141978\u5e74\u8bba\u6587\u5e76\u4e0d\u662f\u4ece\u96f6\u5f00\u59cb\u7684\u7406\u8bba\u521b\u9020\u3002\u5b83\u7684\u6bcf\u4e00\u4e2a\u5173\u952e\u73af\u8282\uff0c\u90fd\u8e29\u5728\u6b64\u524d\u6570\u5341\u5e74\u5f62\u6210\u7684\u7406\u8bba\u57fa\u77f3\u4e4b\u4e0a\uff1a\u8de8\u671f\u6548\u7528\u6700\u5927\u5316\u4e0e\u751f\u547d\u5468\u671f\u5b89\u6392\u6765\u81ea<\/span>\u751f\u547d\u5468\u671f\u5047\u8bf4<\/strong><\/span>\uff0c\u628a\u7ec8\u8eab\u6536\u5165\u6982\u62ec\u4e3a\u201c\u6301\u4e45\u6536\u5165\u201d\u6765\u81ea<\/span>\u6301\u4e45\u6536\u5165\u5047\u8bf4<\/strong><\/span>\uff0c\u9884\u671f\u5f62\u6210\u65b9\u5f0f\u6765\u81ea<\/span>\u7406\u6027\u9884\u671f\u7406\u8bba<\/strong><\/span>\uff0c\u201c\u6d88\u8d39\u4e0d\u53ef\u9884\u6d4b\u201d\u7684\u6570\u5b66\u8868\u8fbe\u6765\u81ea<\/span>\u968f\u673a\u6e38\u8d70\u7406\u8bba<\/strong><\/span>\u4e0e<\/span>\u9785\u7406\u8bba<\/strong><\/span>\u3002\u8981\u68c0\u9a8c\u970d\u5c14\u7406\u8bba\uff0c\u5fc5\u987b\u5148\u9010\u4e00\u8003\u5bdf\u8fd9\u4e94\u5757\u57fa\u77f3\u3002<\/span><\/span>\n<\/p>\n

    \n

    \n\t\t\uff08\u4e00\uff09\u7406\u6027\u9884\u671f\u7406\u8bba<\/strong><\/span><\/span>\n\t<\/p>\n<\/section>\n

    \n

    \n\t\t\u77e5\u8bc6\u7b80\u4ecb<\/strong><\/span>\u3002 \u7406\u6027\u9884\u671f\u7406\u8bba\u4e3b\u5f20\uff1a\u7ecf\u6d4e\u4e3b\u4f53\u5728\u5f62\u6210\u5bf9\u672a\u6765\u7ecf\u6d4e\u53d8\u91cf\u7684\u9884\u671f\u65f6\uff0c\u4f1a\u5145\u5206\u5229\u7528\u4e00\u5207\u53ef\u5f97\u4fe1\u606f\uff0c\u5176\u9884\u671f\u5728\u7edf\u8ba1\u610f\u4e49\u4e0a\u4e0e\u5b9e\u9645\u7ed3\u679c\u4e00\u81f4\u2014\u2014\u9884\u671f\u8bef\u5dee\u662f\u968f\u673a\u7684\u3001\u4e0d\u53ef\u9884\u6d4b\u7684\uff0c\u4e0d\u5b58\u5728\u7cfb\u7edf\u6027\u504f\u5dee\u3002\u7528\u6570\u5b66\u8bed\u8a00\u8bf4\uff0c\u9884\u671f\u7b49\u4e8e\u4ee5\u5f53\u671f\u4fe1\u606f\u96c6\u4e3a\u6761\u4ef6\u7684\u6570\u5b66\u671f\u671b\u3002\u5b83\u4e0e\u201c\u9002\u5e94\u6027\u9884\u671f\u201d\uff08\u4ec5\u4f9d\u636e\u8fc7\u53bb\u6570\u636e\u7f13\u6162\u8c03\u6574\u9884\u671f\uff09\u5f62\u6210\u9c9c\u660e\u5bf9\u7acb\uff1a\u7406\u6027\u9884\u671f\u4e0d\u627f\u8ba4\u4eba\u4eec\u4f1a\u72af\u7cfb\u7edf\u6027\u9519\u8bef\uff0c\u4e0d\u627f\u8ba4\u653f\u7b56\u53ef\u4ee5\u957f\u671f\u201c\u611a\u5f04\u201d\u516c\u4f17\u3002<\/span><\/span>\n\t<\/p>\n

    \n\t\t\u53d1\u5c55\u5386\u53f2<\/strong><\/span>\u3002 1961\u5e74\uff0c\u7f8e\u56fd\u7ecf\u6d4e\u5b66\u5bb6\u7ea6\u7ff0\u00b7\u7a46\u65af\uff08John Muth\uff09\u5728\u300a\u7406\u6027\u9884\u671f\u4e0e\u4ef7\u683c\u8fd0\u52a8\u7406\u8bba\u300b\u4e00\u6587\u4e2d\u9996\u6b21\u63d0\u51fa\u7406\u6027\u9884\u671f\u6982\u5ff5\uff0c\u6700\u521d\u7528\u4e8e\u5206\u6790\u5fae\u89c2\u5e02\u573a\u7684\u4ef7\u683c\u5f62\u6210\u300220\u4e16\u7eaa70\u5e74\u4ee3\uff0c\u7f57\u4f2f\u7279\u00b7\u5362\u5361\u65af\uff08Robert Lucas\uff09\u3001\u6258\u9a6c\u65af\u00b7\u8428\u91d1\u7279\uff08Thomas Sargent\uff09\u4e0e\u5c3c\u5c14\u00b7\u534e\u83b1\u58eb\uff08Neil Wallace\uff09\u628a\u8fd9\u4e00\u6982\u5ff5\u5f15\u5165\u5b8f\u89c2\u7ecf\u6d4e\u5b66\uff0c\u6380\u8d77\u201c\u7406\u6027\u9884\u671f\u9769\u547d\u201d\uff0c\u5f62\u6210\u65b0\u53e4\u5178\u5b8f\u89c2\u7ecf\u6d4e\u5b66\u30021976\u5e74\uff0c\u5362\u5361\u65af\u53d1\u8868\u300a\u8ba1\u91cf\u7ecf\u6d4e\u653f\u7b56\u8bc4\u4ef7\uff1a\u4e00\u79cd\u6279\u5224\u300b\uff0c\u63d0\u51fa\u8457\u540d\u7684\u201c\u5362\u5361\u65af\u6279\u5224\u201d\uff1a\u4e00\u65e6\u653f\u7b56\u89c4\u5219\u6539\u53d8\uff0c\u7ecf\u6d4e\u4e3b\u4f53\u7684\u9884\u671f\u4e0e\u884c\u4e3a\u89c4\u5219\u4e5f\u4f1a\u968f\u4e4b\u6539\u53d8\uff0c\u56e0\u6b64\u57fa\u4e8e\u5386\u53f2\u6570\u636e\u4f30\u8ba1\u7684\u5b8f\u89c2\u8ba1\u91cf\u6a21\u578b\u4e0d\u80fd\u7528\u4e8e\u8bc4\u4ef7\u653f\u7b56\u6548\u679c\u3002\u8fd9\u4e00\u6279\u5224\u51e0\u4e4e\u5ba3\u5224\u4e86\u4f20\u7edf\u51ef\u6069\u65af\u4e3b\u4e49\u5b8f\u89c2\u8ba1\u91cf\u6a21\u578b\u7684\u6b7b\u5211\uff0c\u5b8f\u89c2\u7ecf\u6d4e\u5b66\u7531\u6b64\u5168\u9762\u8f6c\u5411\u201c\u5fae\u89c2\u57fa\u7840\u201d\u8303\u5f0f\u3002<\/span><\/span>\n\t<\/p>\n

    \n\t\t\u76f8\u5173\u83b7\u5956<\/strong><\/span>\u3002 \u5362\u5361\u65af\u4e8e1995\u5e74\u83b7\u8bfa\u8d1d\u5c14\u7ecf\u6d4e\u5b66\u5956\uff0c\u6388\u5956\u7406\u7531\u662f\u201c\u53d1\u5c55\u5e76\u5e94\u7528\u4e86\u7406\u6027\u9884\u671f\u5047\u8bf4\uff0c\u6539\u53d8\u4e86\u5b8f\u89c2\u7ecf\u6d4e\u5206\u6790\uff0c\u52a0\u6df1\u4e86\u6211\u4eec\u5bf9\u7ecf\u6d4e\u653f\u7b56\u7684\u7406\u89e3\u201d\u3002\u8428\u91d1\u7279\u4e0e\u897f\u59c6\u65af\u4e8e2011\u5e74\u56e0\u201c\u5bf9\u5b8f\u89c2\u7ecf\u6d4e\u4e2d\u56e0\u679c\u5173\u7cfb\u7684\u5b9e\u8bc1\u7814\u7a76\u201d\u5171\u540c\u83b7\u5956\u3002\u53ef\u4ee5\u8bf4\uff0c\u7406\u6027\u9884\u671f\u662f\u8fd1\u534a\u4e2a\u4e16\u7eaa\u83b7\u5f97\u8bfa\u5956\u8ba4\u53ef\u6700\u591a\u3001\u5f71\u54cd\u6700\u6df1\u8fdc\u7684\u7ecf\u6d4e\u5b66\u65b9\u6cd5\u8bba\u9769\u547d\u3002<\/span><\/span>\n\t<\/p>\n<\/section>\n

    \n

    \n\t\t\uff08\u4e8c\uff09\u751f\u547d\u5468\u671f\u5047\u8bf4\uff08LCH\uff09<\/strong><\/span><\/span>\n\t<\/p>\n<\/section>\n

    \n

    \n\t\t\u77e5\u8bc6\u7b80\u4ecb<\/strong><\/span>\u3002 \u751f\u547d\u5468\u671f\u5047\u8bf4\u7531\u5f17\u5170\u79d1\u00b7\u83ab\u8fea\u5229\u5b89\u5c3c\uff08Franco Modigliani\uff09\u4e0e\u5176\u5b66\u751f\u7406\u67e5\u5fb7\u00b7\u5e03\u4f26\u4f2f\u683c\uff08Richard Brumberg\uff09\u63d0\u51fa\u3002\u5176\u6838\u5fc3\u601d\u60f3\u662f\uff1a\u7406\u6027\u7684\u6d88\u8d39\u8005\u4f1a\u5728\u6574\u4e2a\u751f\u547d\u5468\u671f\u5185\u7edf\u7b79\u5b89\u6392\u6d88\u8d39\u4e0e\u50a8\u84c4\uff0c\u4f7f\u6d88\u8d39\u8def\u5f84\u5c3d\u53ef\u80fd\u5e73\u6ed1\u3002\u4eba\u5728\u5e74\u8f7b\u6536\u5165\u8f83\u4f4e\u65f6\u53ef\u80fd\u501f\u8d37\u6d88\u8d39\uff0c\u5728\u4e2d\u5e74\u9ad8\u6536\u5165\u65f6\u671f\u50a8\u84c4\u79ef\u7d2f\u8d44\u4ea7\uff0c\u9000\u4f11\u540e\u52a8\u7528\u50a8\u84c4\u7ef4\u6301\u6d88\u8d39\u3002\u7531\u6b64\u63a8\u8bba\uff1a\u5f53\u671f\u6d88\u8d39\u4e0d\u53ea\u53d6\u51b3\u4e8e\u5f53\u671f\u6536\u5165\uff0c\u800c\u53d6\u51b3\u4e8e\u6574\u4e2a\u751f\u547d\u5468\u671f\u7684\u603b\u8d44\u6e90\uff1b\u50a8\u84c4\u7387\u4e0e\u6536\u5165\u7684\u589e\u957f\u901f\u5ea6\u3001\u4eba\u53e3\u5e74\u9f84\u7ed3\u6784\u5bc6\u5207\u76f8\u5173\u3002<\/span><\/span>\n\t<\/p>\n

    \n\t\t\u53d1\u5c55\u5386\u53f2<\/strong><\/span>\u3002 1954\u5e74\uff0c\u83ab\u8fea\u5229\u5b89\u5c3c\u4e0e\u5e03\u4f26\u4f2f\u683c\u53d1\u8868\u300a\u6548\u7528\u5206\u6790\u4e0e\u6d88\u8d39\u51fd\u6570\uff1a\u6a2a\u622a\u9762\u6570\u636e\u7684\u4e00\u79cd\u89e3\u91ca\u300b\uff0c1955\u5e74\u83ab\u8fea\u5229\u5b89\u5c3c\u53c8\u53d1\u8868\u7cfb\u5217\u8bba\u6587\u52a0\u4ee5\u5b8c\u5584\uff0c\u7cfb\u7edf\u5efa\u7acb\u4e86\u751f\u547d\u5468\u671f\u5047\u8bf4\uff0c\u7528\u4ee5\u66ff\u4ee3\u51ef\u6069\u65af\u6d88\u8d39\u51fd\u6570\u4e2d\u201c\u6d88\u8d39\u53ea\u53d6\u51b3\u4e8e\u5f53\u671f\u6536\u5165\u201d\u7684\u7b80\u5355\u8bbe\u5b9a\u3002\u8be5\u7406\u8bba\u6210\u529f\u89e3\u91ca\u4e86\u6a2a\u622a\u9762\u6570\u636e\uff08\u9ad8\u6536\u5165\u5bb6\u5ead\u50a8\u84c4\u7387\u9ad8\uff09\u4e0e\u65f6\u95f4\u5e8f\u5217\u6570\u636e\uff08\u957f\u671f\u50a8\u84c4\u7387\u7a33\u5b9a\uff09\u4e4b\u95f4\u7684\u77db\u76fe\uff0c\u5373\u6240\u8c13\u201c\u6d88\u8d39\u51fd\u6570\u4e4b\u8c1c\u201d\u3002\u6b64\u540e\uff0c\u8be5\u7406\u8bba\u88ab\u5e7f\u6cdb\u7528\u4e8e\u5206\u6790\u517b\u8001\u91d1\u5236\u5ea6\u3001\u4eba\u53e3\u8001\u9f84\u5316\u4e0e\u50a8\u84c4\u7387\u53d8\u5316\uff0c\u5e76\u6210\u4e3a\u5b8f\u89c2\u7ecf\u6d4e\u5b66\u6d88\u8d39\u8005\u884c\u4e3a\u5206\u6790\u7684\u57fa\u51c6\u6846\u67b6\u3002<\/span><\/span>\n\t<\/p>\n

    \n\t\t\u76f8\u5173\u83b7\u5956<\/strong><\/span>\u3002 \u83ab\u8fea\u5229\u5b89\u5c3c\u4e8e1985\u5e74\u83b7\u8bfa\u8d1d\u5c14\u7ecf\u6d4e\u5b66\u5956\uff0c\u6388\u5956\u7406\u7531\u660e\u786e\u8868\u5f70\u5176\u201c\u5bf9\u50a8\u84c4\u7684\u751f\u547d\u5468\u671f\u5047\u8bf4\u548c\u91d1\u878d\u5e02\u573a\u7684\u5f00\u62d3\u6027\u7814\u7a76\u201d\u3002<\/span><\/span>\n\t<\/p>\n<\/section>\n

    \n

    \n\t\t\uff08\u4e09\uff09\u6301\u4e45\u6536\u5165\u5047\u8bf4\uff08PIH\uff09<\/strong><\/span><\/span>\n\t<\/p>\n<\/section>\n

    \n

    \n\t\t\u77e5\u8bc6\u7b80\u4ecb<\/strong><\/span>\u3002 \u6301\u4e45\u6536\u5165\u5047\u8bf4\u7531\u7c73\u5c14\u987f\u00b7\u5f17\u91cc\u5fb7\u66fc\uff08Milton Friedman\uff09\u63d0\u51fa\u3002\u5b83\u628a\u6d88\u8d39\u8005\u7684\u6536\u5165\u5206\u89e3\u4e3a\u4e24\u90e8\u5206\uff1a\u6301\u4e45\u6536\u5165\u2014\u2014\u957f\u671f\u3001\u7a33\u5b9a\u3001\u53ef\u9884\u671f\u7684\u6536\u5165\u6210\u5206\uff1b\u6682\u65f6\u6536\u5165\u2014\u2014\u5076\u7136\u7684\u3001\u4e00\u6b21\u6027\u7684\u6536\u5165\u6ce2\u52a8\u3002\u540c\u6837\uff0c\u6d88\u8d39\u4e5f\u5206\u4e3a\u6301\u4e45\u6d88\u8d39\u4e0e\u6682\u65f6\u6d88\u8d39\u3002\u7406\u8bba\u7684\u6838\u5fc3\u547d\u9898\u662f\uff1a\u6301\u4e45\u6d88\u8d39\u7531\u6301\u4e45\u6536\u5165\u51b3\u5b9a\uff0c\u4e8c\u8005\u4e4b\u95f4\u5b58\u5728\u7a33\u5b9a\u7684\u6bd4\u4f8b\u5173\u7cfb\uff1b\u6682\u65f6\u6536\u5165\u5bf9\u6d88\u8d39\u51e0\u4e4e\u6ca1\u6709\u5f71\u54cd\uff0c\u5176\u4e3b\u8981\u53bb\u5411\u662f\u50a8\u84c4\u3002\u56e0\u6b64\uff0c\u5f53\u671f\u6536\u5165\u7684\u77ed\u671f\u6ce2\u52a8\u4e0d\u4f1a\u660e\u663e\u6539\u53d8\u6d88\u8d39\uff0c\u6d88\u8d39\u6bd4\u6536\u5165\u5e73\u6ed1\u5f97\u591a\u3002<\/span><\/span>\n\t<\/p>\n

    \n\t\t\u53d1\u5c55\u5386\u53f2\u3002<\/strong><\/span> 1957\u5e74\uff0c\u5f17\u91cc\u5fb7\u66fc\u51fa\u7248\u300a\u6d88\u8d39\u51fd\u6570\u7406\u8bba\u300b\uff0c\u7cfb\u7edf\u63d0\u51fa\u6301\u4e45\u6536\u5165\u5047\u8bf4\u3002\u8fd9\u662f\u6d88\u8d39\u7406\u8bba\u53f2\u4e0a\u5f71\u54cd\u6700\u6df1\u8fdc\u7684\u8457\u4f5c\u4e4b\u4e00\uff1a\u5b83\u4e0e\u751f\u547d\u5468\u671f\u5047\u8bf4\u51e0\u4e4e\u540c\u65f6\u3001\u6b8a\u9014\u540c\u5f52\u5730\u5f97\u51fa\u4e86\u201c\u6d88\u8d39\u53d6\u51b3\u4e8e\u957f\u671f\u6536\u5165\u800c\u975e\u5f53\u671f\u6536\u5165\u201d\u7684\u7ed3\u8bba\uff0c\u5171\u540c\u6784\u6210\u73b0\u4ee3\u6d88\u8d39\u7406\u8bba\u7684\u53cc\u74a7\u3002\u5f17\u91cc\u5fb7\u66fc\u7528\u5927\u91cf\u7f8e\u56fd\u6570\u636e\u5bf9\u8be5\u7406\u8bba\u8fdb\u884c\u4e86\u7ec6\u81f4\u7684\u5b9e\u8bc1\u68c0\u9a8c\uff0c\u5176\u65b9\u6cd5\u8bba\u2014\u2014\u5f3a\u8c03\u7406\u8bba\u5fc5\u987b\u63a5\u53d7\u6570\u636e\u68c0\u9a8c\u2014\u2014\u4e5f\u6210\u4e3a\u829d\u52a0\u54e5\u5b66\u6d3e\u7684\u6807\u5fd7\u3002\u540e\u6765\u970d\u5c141978\u5e74\u8bba\u6587\u7684\u5b8c\u6574\u6807\u9898\u6b63\u662f\u201c\u751f\u547d\u5468\u671f\u2014\u6301\u4e45\u6536\u5165\u5047\u8bf4\u7684\u968f\u673a\u542b\u4e49\u201d\uff0c\u5373\u628aLCH\u4e0ePIH\u89c6\u4e3a\u540c\u4e00\u7406\u8bba\u4f20\u7edf\u7684\u4e24\u4e2a\u540d\u79f0\u3002<\/span><\/span>\n\t<\/p>\n

    \n\t\t\u76f8\u5173\u83b7\u5956\u3002<\/strong><\/span> \u5f17\u91cc\u5fb7\u66fc\u4e8e1976\u5e74\u83b7\u8bfa\u8d1d\u5c14\u7ecf\u6d4e\u5b66\u5956\uff0c\u6388\u5956\u7406\u7531\u6db5\u76d6\u5176\u201c\u5728\u6d88\u8d39\u5206\u6790\u3001\u8d27\u5e01\u53f2\u4e0e\u8d27\u5e01\u7406\u8bba\u9886\u57df\u7684\u6210\u5c31\uff0c\u4ee5\u53ca\u4ed6\u5bf9\u7a33\u5b9a\u653f\u7b56\u590d\u6742\u6027\u7684\u8bba\u8bc1\u201d\uff0c\u300a\u6d88\u8d39\u51fd\u6570\u7406\u8bba\u300b\u88ab\u660e\u786e\u5217\u4e3a\u4ee3\u8868\u6027\u8d21\u732e\u3002<\/span><\/span>\n\t<\/p>\n<\/section>\n

    \n

    \n\t\t\uff08\u56db\uff09\u968f\u673a\u6e38\u8d70\u7406\u8bba<\/strong><\/span><\/span>\n\t<\/p>\n<\/section>\n

    \n

    \n\t\t\u77e5\u8bc6\u7b80\u4ecb\u3002<\/strong><\/span> \u968f\u673a\u6e38\u8d70\u7406\u8bba\u63cf\u8ff0\u8fd9\u6837\u4e00\u79cd\u8fc7\u7a0b\uff1a\u53d8\u91cf\u7684\u6bcf\u4e00\u6b65\u53d8\u5316\u90fd\u662f\u4e00\u4e2a\u72ec\u7acb\u7684\u968f\u673a\u589e\u91cf\uff0c\u4e0b\u4e00\u6b65\u7684\u65b9\u5411\u4e0e\u5e45\u5ea6\u5b8c\u5168\u4e0d\u53ef\u9884\u6d4b\uff0c\u5f53\u524d\u503c\u662f\u5bf9\u672a\u6765\u503c\u6700\u597d\u7684\u9884\u6d4b\u3002\u7ecf\u6d4e\u5b66\u4e2d\u7684\u968f\u673a\u6e38\u8d70\u5047\u8bf4\u4e3b\u5f20\uff1a\u91d1\u878d\u8d44\u4ea7\u4ef7\u683c\uff08\u5982\u80a1\u7968\u4ef7\u683c\uff09\u670d\u4ece\u968f\u673a\u6e38\u8d70\uff0c\u4ef7\u683c\u53d8\u5316\u4e0d\u53ef\u9884\u6d4b\uff0c\u4efb\u4f55\u516c\u5f00\u53ef\u5f97\u7684\u4fe1\u606f\u90fd\u5df2\u5145\u5206\u53cd\u6620\u5728\u5f53\u524d\u4ef7\u683c\u4e4b\u4e2d\u2014\u2014\u8fd9\u5c31\u662f\u8457\u540d\u7684\u201c\u6709\u6548\u5e02\u573a\u5047\u8bf4\u201d\u7684\u6838\u5fc3\u5185\u5bb9\u3002<\/span><\/span>\n\t<\/p>\n

    \n\t\t\u53d1\u5c55\u5386\u53f2\u3002<\/strong><\/span> \u8fd9\u6761\u7406\u8bba\u7ebf\u7d22\u662f\u4ece\u7269\u7406\u5b66\u53d1\u5c55\u5230\u6570\u5b66\uff0c\u518d\u7136\u540e\u6210\u4e3a\u7ecf\u6d4e\u5b66\u7406\u8bba\u57fa\u7840\u5de5\u5177\u4e4b\u4e00\u3002<\/span><\/span>\n\t<\/p>\n

    \n\t\t\u7269\u7406\u5b66\u6e90\u5934\uff1a<\/strong><\/span>1827\u5e74\uff0c\u82f1\u56fd\u690d\u7269\u5b66\u5bb6\u7f57\u4f2f\u7279\u00b7\u5e03\u6717\uff08Robert Brown\uff09\u5728\u663e\u5fae\u955c\u4e0b\u89c2\u5bdf\u5230\u82b1\u7c89\u9897\u7c92\u5728\u6c34\u4e2d\u505a\u6c38\u4e0d\u505c\u606f\u7684\u4e0d\u89c4\u5219\u8fd0\u52a8\uff0c\u5373\u201c\u5e03\u6717\u8fd0\u52a8\u201d\u3002<\/span><\/span>\n\t<\/p>\n

    \n\t\t1905\u20141906\u5e74\uff0c\u7231\u56e0\u65af\u5766\u53d1\u8868\u4e24\u7bc7\u8bba\u6587\uff0c\u7528\u5206\u5b50\u70ed\u8fd0\u52a8\u7406\u8bba\u7ed9\u51fa\u5e03\u6717\u8fd0\u52a8\u7684\u6570\u5b66\u63cf\u8ff0\uff0c\u63a8\u5bfc\u51fa\u6269\u6563\u65b9\u7a0b\u3002<\/span><\/span>\n\t<\/p>\n

    \n\t\t\"\u56fe\u7247\"
    \n\t<\/section>\n

    \n\t\t
    <\/span>\n\t<\/p>\n

    \n\t\t\u66f4\u8fdb\u4e00\u6b65\u63a8\u5bfc\u51fa\u7684\u65af\u6258\u514b\u65af\u2014\u7231\u56e0\u65af\u5766\u65b9<\/span><\/span>\u7a0b<\/span><\/span>\u76ae<\/span><\/span><\/span><\/span>\u5170<\/span><\/span><\/span><\/span>\u5b9e\u9a8c<\/span><\/span><\/span><\/span>\u5f62\u5f0f<\/span><\/span><\/span><\/span>\uff0c\u53ef<\/span><\/span><\/span><\/span>\u8ba1\u7b97<\/span><\/span><\/span><\/span>\u51fa<\/span><\/span>\u963f\u4f0f\u4f3d\u5fb7\u7f57\u5e38\u6570\u3002<\/span><\/span>\n\t<\/p>\n

    \n\t\t\"\u56fe\u7247\"
    \n\t<\/section>\n

    \n\t\t1908\u5e74\uff0c\u6cd5\u56fd\u7269\u7406\u5b66\u5bb6\u76ae\u5170\uff08Jean Perrin\uff09\u901a\u8fc7\u7cbe\u5bc6\u7684\u5b9e\u9a8c\u6d4b\u91cf\u9a8c\u8bc1\u4e86\u7231\u56e0\u65af\u5766\u7684\u9884\u8a00\uff0c\u5e76\u636e\u6b64\u6d4b\u5b9a\u4e86\u963f\u4f0f\u4f3d\u5fb7\u7f57\u5e38\u6570\u2014\u2014\u4f69\u5170\u56e0\u6b64\u83b71926\u5e74\u8bfa\u8d1d\u5c14\u7269\u7406\u5b66\u5956\uff0c\u8fd9\u4e00\u5de5\u4f5c\u88ab\u89c6\u4e3a\u539f\u5b50\u5b9e\u5728\u6027\u7684\u51b3\u5b9a\u6027\u8bc1\u636e\u3002<\/span><\/span>\n\t<\/p>\n

    \n\t\t1923\u5e74\uff0c\u7f8e\u56fd\u6570\u5b66\u5bb6\u7ef4\u7eb3\uff08Norbert Wiener\uff09\u6784\u9020\u51fa\u5e03\u6717\u8fd0\u52a8\u7684\u4e25\u683c\u6570\u5b66\u6a21\u578b\uff0c\u5373\u4eca\u5929\u6240\u79f0\u7684\u201c\u7ef4\u7eb3\u8fc7\u7a0b\u201d\uff0c\u5e03\u6717\u8fd0\u52a8\u7531\u6b64\u4ece\u7269\u7406\u73b0\u8c61\u6f14\u5316\u4e3a\u4e25\u683c\u7684\u6570\u5b66\u7406\u8bba\u3002<\/span><\/span>\n\t<\/p>\n

    \n\t\t\u7ecf\u6d4e\u5b66\u5e94\u7528<\/strong><\/span>\uff1a1900\u5e74\uff0c\u6cd5\u56fd\u6570\u5b66\u5bb6\u5df4\u820d\u5229\u8036\uff08Louis Bachelier\uff09\u5728\u535a\u58eb\u8bba\u6587\u300a\u6295\u673a\u7406\u8bba\u300b\u4e2d\u9996\u6b21\u7528\u8fde\u7eed\u968f\u673a\u8fc7\u7a0b\u523b\u753b\u80a1\u7968\u4ef7\u683c\u7684\u6ce2\u52a8\uff0c\u6bd4\u7231\u56e0\u65af\u5766\u8fd8\u65e9\u4e94\u5e74\uff0c\u4f46\u8be5\u8bba\u6587\u957f\u671f\u65e0\u4eba\u95ee\u6d25\u3002<\/span><\/span>\n\t<\/p>\n

    \n\t\t1933\u5e74\uff0c\u8003\u5c14\u65af\uff08Alfred Cowles\uff09\u5bf9\u4e13\u4e1a\u6295\u8d44\u673a\u6784\u7684\u9884\u6d4b\u80fd\u529b\u8fdb\u884c\u7edf\u8ba1\u68c0\u9a8c\uff0c\u53d1\u73b0\u5176\u5e76\u4e0d\u4f18\u4e8e\u968f\u673a\u731c\u6d4b\u3002<\/span><\/span>\n\t<\/p>\n

    \n\t\t1953\u5e74\uff0c\u80af\u5fb7\u5c14\uff08Maurice Kendall\uff09\u5206\u6790\u5546\u54c1\u4ef7\u683c\u5e8f\u5217\uff0c\u53d1\u73b0\u4ef7\u683c\u53d8\u5316\u51e0\u4e4e\u6ca1\u6709\u53ef\u9884\u6d4b\u7684\u89c4\u5f8b\u3002<\/span><\/span>\n\t<\/p>\n

    \n\t\t1959\u5e74\uff0c\u5965\u65af\u672c\uff08M. F. M. Osborne\uff09\u91cd\u65b0\u72ec\u7acb\u63d0\u51fa\u80a1\u7968\u4ef7\u683c\u670d\u4ece\u5bf9\u6570\u6b63\u6001\u968f\u673a\u6e38\u8d70\u3002<\/span><\/span>\n\t<\/p>\n

    \n\t\t1965\u5e74\uff0c\u8428\u7f2a\u5c14\u68ee\uff08Paul Samuelson\uff09\u53d1\u8868\u300a\u6070\u5f53\u9884\u671f\u4ef7\u683c\u968f\u673a\u6da8\u843d\u7684\u8bc1\u660e\u300b\uff0c\u4ece\u7406\u6027\u9884\u671f\u89d2\u5ea6\u8bba\u8bc1\u4ef7\u683c\u6ce2\u52a8\u670d\u4ece\u9785\uff1b\u540c\u5e74\u5c24\u91d1\u00b7\u6cd5\u739b\uff08Eugene Fama\uff09\u53d1\u8868\u535a\u58eb\u8bba\u6587\u300a\u80a1\u7968\u5e02\u573a\u4ef7\u683c\u7684\u884c\u4e3a\u300b\uff0c1970\u5e74\u6cd5\u739b\u53c8\u53d1\u8868\u7efc\u8ff0\u300a\u6709\u6548\u8d44\u672c\u5e02\u573a\uff1a\u7406\u8bba\u4e0e\u5b9e\u8bc1\u7814\u7a76\u8ff0\u8bc4\u300b\uff0c\u7cfb\u7edf\u63d0\u51fa\u6709\u6548\u5e02\u573a\u5047\u8bf4\u3002<\/span><\/span>\n\t<\/p>\n

    \n\t\t\u76f8\u5173\u83b7\u5956\u3002<\/strong><\/span> \u8428\u7f2a\u5c14\u68ee\u4e8e1970\u5e74\u83b7\u8bfa\u8d1d\u5c14\u7ecf\u6d4e\u5b66\u5956\uff1b\u6cd5\u739b\u4e8e2013\u5e74\u4e0e\u5e2d\u52d2\u3001\u6c49\u68ee\u5171\u540c\u83b7\u5956\uff0c\u8868\u5f70\u5176\u201c\u5bf9\u8d44\u4ea7\u4ef7\u683c\u7684\u5b9e\u8bc1\u5206\u6790\u201d\u3002\u7269\u7406\u5b66\u4e00\u4fa7\uff0c\u76ae\u5170\u83b71926\u5e74\u8bfa\u8d1d\u5c14\u7269\u7406\u5b66\u5956\u3002<\/span><\/span>\n\t<\/p>\n<\/section>\n

    \n

    \n\t\t\uff08\u4e94\uff09\u9785\u7406\u8bba<\/strong><\/span><\/span>\n\t<\/p>\n<\/section>\n

    \n

    \n\t\t\u77e5\u8bc6\u7b80\u4ecb\u3002<\/strong><\/span> \u201c\u9785\u201d\uff08martingale\uff09\u4e00\u8bcd\u6e90\u81ea\u6cd5\u8bed\uff0c\u539f\u6307\u4e00\u79cd\u8d4c\u535a\u7b56\u7565\uff1a\u6bcf\u6b21\u8f93\u540e\u52a0\u500d\u4e0b\u6ce8\u3002\u5728\u6982\u7387\u8bba\u4e2d\uff0c\u9785\u662f\u8fd9\u6837\u4e00\u7c7b\u968f\u673a\u8fc7\u7a0b\uff1a\u7ed9\u5b9a\u8fc7\u53bb\u5168\u90e8\u4fe1\u606f\u7684\u6761\u4ef6\u4e0b\uff0c\u672a\u6765\u7684\u6761\u4ef6\u671f\u671b\u6070\u7b49\u4e8e\u5f53\u524d\u503c\u3002\u7528\u516c\u5f0f\u8868\u793a\uff1aE(Xt+1 | \u5df2\u6709\u4fe1\u606f) = Xt\u3002\u9785\u7684\u76f4\u89c2\u542b\u4e49\u662f\u201c\u516c\u5e73\u6e38\u620f\u201d\u2014\u2014\u5728\u516c\u5e73\u7684\u8d4c\u5c40\u4e2d\uff0c\u8d4c\u5f92\u4e0b\u4e00\u671f\u7684\u671f\u671b\u8d22\u5bcc\u6070\u7b49\u4e8e\u5f53\u671f\u8d22\u5bcc\uff0c\u4e0d\u5b58\u5728\u7a33\u8d5a\u4e0d\u8d54\u7684\u7b56\u7565\u3002\u9785\u662f\u6982\u7387\u8bba\u4e2d\u6700\u6838\u5fc3\u7684\u6982\u5ff5\u4e4b\u4e00\uff0c\u4e5f\u662f\u73b0\u4ee3\u91d1\u878d\u6570\u5b66\u7684\u57fa\u77f3\uff1a\u65e0\u5957\u5229\u6761\u4ef6\u4e0b\uff0c\u8d34\u73b0\u8d44\u4ea7\u4ef7\u683c\u5fc5\u987b\u662f\u9785\u3002<\/span><\/span>\n\t<\/p>\n

    \n\t\t\u53d1\u5c55\u5386\u53f2\u3002 <\/strong><\/span>1939\u5e74\uff0c\u6cd5\u56fd\u6570\u5b66\u5bb6\u8ba9\u00b7\u7ef4\u5c14\uff08Jean Ville\uff09\u5728\u5176\u535a\u58eb\u8bba\u6587\u4e2d\u9996\u6b21\u7ed9\u51fa\u9785\u7684\u4e25\u683c\u6570\u5b66\u5b9a\u4e49\uff0c\u7528\u4ee5\u523b\u753b\u201c\u516c\u5e73\u6e38\u620f\u201d\u3002<\/span><\/span>\n\t<\/p>\n

    \n\t\t1953\u5e74\uff0c\u7f8e\u56fd\u6570\u5b66\u5bb6\u7ea6\u745f\u592b\u00b7\u675c\u5e03\uff08Joseph L. Doob\uff09\u51fa\u7248\u7ecf\u5178\u8457\u4f5c\u300a\u968f\u673a\u8fc7\u7a0b\u300b\uff08Stochastic Processes\uff09\uff0c\u5efa\u7acb\u4e86\u9785\u8bba\u7684\u5b8c\u6574\u6570\u5b66\u4f53\u7cfb\u2014\u2014\u9785\u6536\u655b\u5b9a\u7406\u3001\u505c\u65f6\u5b9a\u7406\u3001\u53ef\u9009\u62bd\u6837\u5b9a\u7406\u7686\u51fa\u4e8e\u6b64\uff0c\u9785\u8bba\u7531\u6b64\u6210\u4e3a\u73b0\u4ee3\u6982\u7387\u8bba\u7684\u4e3b\u5e72\u5206\u652f\u3002<\/span><\/span>\n\t<\/p>\n

    \n\t\t\u7ecf\u6d4e\u5b66\u4e00\u4fa7\uff0c1965\u5e74\u8428\u7f2a\u5c14\u68ee\u628a\u9785\u6982\u5ff5\u5f15\u5165\u8d44\u4ea7\u5b9a\u4ef7\u3002<\/span><\/span>\n\t<\/p>\n

    \n\t\t1979\u5e74\u54c8\u91cc\u68ee\u4e0e\u514b\u96f7\u666e\u65af\uff08Harrison & Kreps\uff09\u30011981\u5e74\u54c8\u91cc\u68ee\u4e0e\u666e\u5229\u65af\u5361\uff08Harrison & Pliska\uff09\u5efa\u7acb\u4e86\u9785\u65b9\u6cd5\u4e0e\u5957\u5229\u5b9a\u4ef7\u7406\u8bba\u4e4b\u95f4\u7684\u4e25\u683c\u5bf9\u5e94\u5173\u7cfb\uff0c\u5960\u5b9a\u73b0\u4ee3\u91d1\u878d\u6570\u5b66\u7684\u57fa\u7840\u3002<\/span><\/span>\n\t<\/p>\n

    \n\t\t\u970d\u5c141978\u5e74\u8bba\u6587\u4e2d\u201c\u6d88\u8d39\u662f\u9785\u201d\u7684\u547d\u9898\uff0c\u6b63\u662f\u8fd9\u6761\u7406\u8bba\u7ebf\u7d22\u5728\u6d88\u8d39\u9886\u57df\u7684\u5e94\u7528\u3002<\/span><\/span>\n\t<\/p>\n

    \n\t\t\u76f8\u5173\u83b7\u5956\u4e0e\u6570\u5b66\u5bb6\u8363\u8a89\u3002 \u9785\u8bba\u4f5c\u4e3a\u7eaf\u7cb9\u6570\u5b66\u7406\u8bba\uff0c\u5176\u53d1\u5c55\u8005\u83b7\u5f97\u7684\u591a\u4e3a\u6570\u5b66\u754c\u4e0e\u79d1\u5b66\u754c\u6700\u9ad8\u8363\u8a89\uff1a\u675c\u5e03\u4e8e1979\u5e74\u83b7\u7f8e\u56fd\u56fd\u5bb6\u79d1\u5b66\u5956\u7ae0\uff0c1984\u5e74\u83b7\u7f8e\u56fd\u6570\u5b66\u4f1a\u65af\u8482\u5c14\u5956\uff08Leroy P. Steele Prize\uff09\uff1b\u4e0e\u9785\u8bba\u5bc6\u5207\u76f8\u5173\u7684\u968f\u673a\u5206\u6790\u5960\u57fa\u4eba\u4f0a\u85e4\u6e05\uff08Kiyosi It\u00f4\uff09\u4e8e1987\u5e74\u83b7\u6c83\u5c14\u592b\u6570\u5b66\u5956\u30011998\u5e74\u83b7\u4eac\u90fd\u5956\u30012006\u5e74\u83b7\u9996\u5c4a\u9ad8\u65af\u5956\uff08\u8be5\u5956\u4e13\u95e8\u8868\u5f70\u6570\u5b66\u5728\u5176\u4ed6\u9886\u57df\u7684\u91cd\u5927\u5e94\u7528\uff09\u3002\u5728\u83f2\u5c14\u5179\u5956\u5c42\u9762\uff0c\u9785\u4e0e\u968f\u673a\u8fc7\u7a0b\u65b9\u6cd5\u6df1\u5ea6\u6e17\u900f\u4e8e\u591a\u4f4d\u83b7\u5956\u8005\u7684\u6210\u679c\u4e2d\uff1a2006\u5e74\u6e29\u5fb7\u6797\u00b7\u7ef4\u5c14\u7eb3\uff08Wendelin Werner\uff09\u56e0\u968f\u673a\u5171\u5f62\u6620\u5c04\u7814\u7a76\u83b7\u5956\uff0c2010\u5e74\u65af\u5766\u5c3c\u65af\u62c9\u592b\u00b7\u65af\u7c73\u5c14\u8bfa\u592b\uff08Stanislav Smirnov\uff09\u56e0\u7edf\u8ba1\u7269\u7406\u4e2d\u968f\u673a\u8fc7\u7a0b\u5171\u5f62\u4e0d\u53d8\u6027\u83b7\u5956\uff0c2014\u5e74\u9a6c\u4e01\u00b7\u6d77\u96f7\u5c14\uff08Martin Hairer\uff09\u56e0\u968f\u673a\u504f\u5fae\u5206\u65b9\u7a0b\u6b63\u5219\u6027\u7ed3\u6784\u7406\u8bba\u83b7\u5956\uff0c2022\u5e74\u96e8\u679c\u00b7\u8fea\u7c73\u5c3c-\u79d1\u6f58\uff08Hugo Duminil-Copin\uff09\u56e0\u7edf\u8ba1\u7269\u7406\u76f8\u53d8\u7684\u6982\u7387\u65b9\u6cd5\u83b7\u5956\u3002\u6b64\u5916\uff0c\u7f8e\u56fd\u6570\u5b66\u4f1a\u8bbe\u6709\u201c\u675c\u5e03\u5956\u201d\uff08Joseph L. Doob Prize\uff09\uff0c\u4f2f\u52aa\u5229\u5b66\u4f1a\u8bbe\u6709\u201c\u4f0a\u85e4\u5956\u201d\uff08It\u00f4 Prize\uff09\uff0c\u4ee5\u7eaa\u5ff5\u8fd9\u4e24\u4f4d\u9785\u8bba\u4e0e\u968f\u673a\u5206\u6790\u5de8\u5320\u3002<\/span><\/span>\n\t<\/p>\n<\/section>\n

    \n

    \n\t\t\uff08\u516d\uff09\u5c0f\u7ed3\uff1a\u4e00\u5ea7\u5efa\u7acb\u5728\u4e94\u5757\u57fa\u77f3\u4e0a\u7684\u7406\u8bba\u5927\u53a6<\/strong><\/span><\/span>\n\t<\/p>\n<\/section>\n

    \n

    \n\t\t\u81f3\u6b64\uff0c\u970d\u5c14\u7406\u8bba\u7684\u201c\u7406\u8bba\u5bb6\u8c31\u201d\u5df2\u7ecf\u6e05\u6670\uff1a\u5b83\u4ee5\u751f\u547d\u5468\u671f\u5047\u8bf4\u548c\u6301\u4e45\u6536\u5165\u5047\u8bf4\u4e3a\u6d88\u8d39\u7406\u8bba\u7684\u5b9e\u4f53\u5185\u5bb9\uff0c\u4ee5\u7406\u6027\u9884\u671f\u4e3a\u65b9\u6cd5\u8bba\u524d\u63d0\uff0c\u4ee5\u968f\u673a\u6e38\u8d70\u548c\u9785\u4e3a\u6570\u5b66\u5916\u8863\uff0c\u6700\u7ec8\u5f97\u51fa\u201c\u6d88\u8d39\u670d\u4ece\u968f\u673a\u6e38\u8d70\u201d\u7684\u7ed3\u8bba\uff0c\u5e76\u4ee5\u8ba1\u91cf\u68c0\u9a8c\u83b7\u5f97\u201c\u652f\u6301\u4fee\u6b63\u7248LCH-PIH\u201d\u7684\u5b9e\u8bc1\u80cc\u4e66\uff0c\u6700\u7ec8\u57282026\u5e74\u83b7\u5f97\u8bfa\u5956\u3002<\/span><\/span>\n\t<\/p>\n

    \n\t\t\u4ece\u8868\u9762\u4e0a\u770b\uff0c\u8fd9\u662f\u4e00\u6761\u73af\u73af\u76f8\u6263\u3001\u4e25\u5bc6\u7cbe\u81f4\u7684\u7406\u8bba\u94fe\u6761\uff1a\u6bcf\u4e00\u6b65\u90fd\u6709\u540d\u5bb6\u5960\u57fa\uff0c\u6bcf\u4e00\u6b65\u90fd\u6709\u8bfa\u5956\u548c\u6570\u5b66\u754c\u7684\u9876\u7ea7\u5956\u9879\u80cc\u4e66\uff0c\u6570\u5b66\u5f62\u5f0f\u8c8c\u4f3c\u65e0\u61c8\u53ef\u51fb\u3002\u4f46\u79d1\u5b66\u53f2\u4e0a\u4ece\u6765\u4e0d\u7f3a\u201c\u94fe\u6761\u4e25\u5bc6\u5374\u5730\u57fa\u677e\u8f6f\u201d\u7684\u7406\u8bba\u4f53\u7cfb\u2014\u2014\u6258\u52d2\u5bc6\u7684\u672c\u8f6e\u5747\u8f6e\u4f53\u7cfb\u540c\u6837\u73af\u73af\u76f8\u6263\u3001\u8ba1\u7b97\u7cbe\u5bc6\uff0c\u540c\u6837\u7edf\u6cbb\u5929\u6587\u5b66\u4e00\u5343\u4e94\u767e\u5e74\u3002\u5224\u65ad\u4e00\u4e2a\u7406\u8bba\u662f\u5426\u79d1\u5b66\uff0c\u4e0d\u80fd\u770b\u5b83\u7684\u94fe\u6761\u591a\u4e48\u7cbe\u81f4\uff0c\u800c\u8981\u770b\u5b83\u7684\u5730\u57fa\u662f\u5426\u5efa\u7acb\u5728\u5bf9\u7814\u7a76\u5bf9\u8c61\u7684\u771f\u5b9e\u6d4b\u91cf\u4e4b\u4e0a\uff0c\u770b\u5b83\u7684\u524d\u63d0\u5047\u8bbe\u662f\u5426\u7ecf\u5f97\u8d77\u7ecf\u9a8c\u68c0\u9a8c\uff0c\u770b\u5b83\u7684\u68c0\u9a8c\u6807\u51c6\u662f\u5426\u7b26\u5408\u79d1\u5b66\u7684\u4e00\u822c\u65b9\u6cd5\u3002\u8fd9\u5c31\u662f\u7edf\u4e00\u6d4b\u91cf\u5b66\u7684\u57fa\u672c\u6807\u51c6\u3002<\/span><\/span>\n\t<\/p>\n

    \n\t\t\u4e0a\u7bc7\u5230\u6b64\u5b8c\u6210\u4e86\u201c\u7acb\u9776\u5b50\u201d\u7684\u5de5\u4f5c\u3002\u4e0b\u7bc7\u5c06\u62ff\u51fa\u4ee5\u7edf\u4e00\u6d4b\u91cf\u5b66\u4e3a\u57fa\u7840\u7684\u79d1\u5b66\u65b9\u6cd5\u6807\u5c3a\uff0c\u9010\u4e00\u8861\u91cf\u8fd9\u5ea7\u7406\u8bba\u5927\u53a6\u7684\u4e94\u5757\u57fa\u77f3\u4e0e\u4e3b\u4f53\u7ed3\u6784\u3002<\/span><\/span>\n\t<\/p>\n<\/section>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

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